Surprises and Disappointments

I touched on the topic of surprises and disappointments in an earlier post, but I thought I needed to address the topic again.  This season has been a bit schizophrenic thus far, with some players over-achieving, and others falling below their potential and what we've seen in the past.

Surprises

Clay Buchholz
I think Buchholz has been the biggest surprise of the team so far.  He's 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA.  His WHIP is standing at 1.036, and he's been really impressive in his starts.  Even his last couple starts, where he's gotten no decisions, he's only giving up 2-3 runs.  This Red Sox team SHOULD be able to score enough runs in Buchholz's starts to win ballgames.  He's also averaging 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Bullpen

Honestly, I couldn’t pick just one reliever to be the surprise.  I knew the bullpen would be better than last year (I don’t know if they could’ve done much worse), but I didn’t know it’s be this good.  Granted, I’m only considering the relievers who are still in the bullpen (not Bard, Hanrahan, Webster, Wright, or De La Torre who all have ERAs of at least 9.00).  Miller (3.77) and Mortensen (3.68) have the highest ERAs, and Breslow (1.17) has the lowest.  Bailey’s WHIP is at0.811.  

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Last year, when Salty his .222 with 25 home runs and 59 RBIs, the Sox and fans were satisfied with those totals.  Sure, it wasn’t the greatest stats to have, but a catcher has a lot more responsibility than offense.  He’s calling the games for the pitchers.  This year, Salty is hitting .265 with 5 home runs and 13 RBIs.  Yes, the power has gone down slightly, but his average has gone up.  He’s making more contact.  In less than a quarter of a season, Salty has a third of the hits (30) he had all of last year (90).  Plus, the pitching is a vast improvement this year compared to last year, which means Salty’s calling a better game.

David Ortiz

In 27 games this season, Ortiz his hitting .349 with 7 home runs, 9 doubles, and 29 RBIs.  The only person who has more RBIs than Ortiz is Napoli, who has 35 in 45 games.  His on base percentage is at .397.  By comparison, Ellsbury’s is at .307, and he’s the leadoff batter.

Disappointments

Jacoby Ellsbury

As already stated (in this post and others), Ellsbury is not getting on base.  He has a .307 OBP and is only batting .242.  While his defense has been great, his offense is greatly diminished.  Ellsbury’s power is down as well.  He only has 1 home run this season.  The only other player currently on the roster to only have 1 home run, and is not a pitcher, is Pedro Ciriaco.

Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan is injured beyond repair and will not play another game for the Red Sox this season… and maybe ever again; his contract is up at the end of the year.  He had Tommy John and flexor muscle repair surgery last week, and won’t pitch again for 12-15 months, at least.  I call Hanrahan a disappointment in the sense that he never really got to try and pitch for the Sox.  He was injured, which is disappointing (see what I did there?).  He’s an Iowa guy though, and he’s tough.  He’ll be back, just don’t know with what team and when.

Will Middlebrooks

Yes, Middlebrooks is hitting better lately, but he’s still only batting .208 for the season.  After the 3-home run massacre he gave the Blue Jays back in April, he’s faltered heavily.  He has 50 strikeouts, compared to 7 walks, this season.  He does have 20 RBIs for the season, and 8 home runs.  Hopefully, he comes out of this slump… fast.

Daniel Bard

Daniel Bard made two appearances for the Red Sox this season, because he was the only pitcher available on the 40-man roster.  He pitched 1.0 inning, walked 2, gave up 1 hit, 1 earned run, and has a 9.0 ERA.  He was sent back to Double-A, where he’s spent most of the season.  Things are so bad in Double-A for Bard (12.2 IP, 13 hits, 11 runs, 9 earned runs, 1 home run, 17 walks, 6 strikeouts, 6.39 ERA, and 2.368 WHIP), that he’s been shut down since May 15th.

Random Thoughts

- With a 7-2 win over the Astros last night, the Red Sox are currently 15-7, tied with the Rangers for the best record in the American League. The Orioles are 2 games back, and the Yankees 2.5 games back.

- David Ortiz hit his first home run of the season last night. In 5 games, he is hitting .550 (11 for 20) with 3 doubles and 5 RBIs.

- Clay Buchholz has a 5-0 record with a 1.19 ERA and a 1.009 WHIP. He’s given up 5 earned runs, 1 home run, and 13 walks, while striking out 39.

- Shane Victorino was held out of last night’s game for a tight back, which also plagued him last weekend. The thought is he’s day-to-day, but could this be a problem this season? Victorino is currently hitting .292 with 3 stolen bases. His defense has been just as impressive as his offense.

- Daniel Bard rejoined the Red Sox and appeared in the 9th inning last night. He worked a scoreless inning, gave up a hit, and struck out one.

- Alfredo Aceves was optioned to Triple-A after the game on Wednesday, and catcher, Ryan Lavarnway was called up.

- The thought is Lavarnway will be with the team until Sunday, when Lackey is presumably back. Will the Sox use Lavarnway in a game situation? Currently, Sox catchers are hitting .202 (17 for 84). Lavarnway was hitting .310 in Triple-A with 1 home run, 3 doubles, and 7 RBIs. More impressive, he’s walked and struck out 7 times each.

- Mike Napoli currently leads the Majors with 26 RBIs. Clay Buchholz leads the Majors with 5 wins (his 1.19 ERA is good enough for 3rd). The Red Sox pitching staff leads the Majors with a 10.01 per nine innings strikeout rate.

- My MLB-At-Bat Feed worked during my run (outside!) last night. It was nice to run and listen to the beginning of the game, especially when the Sox scored 4 runs in the first inning.

Bard Demoted to Triple-A

Yesterday, Daniel Bard was optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Darnell McDonald to return to the Red Sox from the disabled list. Naturally, Bard did not take this news very well. Sunday’s outing where he gave up 5 runs on one hit in 1.2 innings (which also included 6 walks and 2 hit batters) was the final straw. Bard needed out of the rotation so the Red Sox have a chance at
winning more games.

But, don’t think this is a Joba Chamberlain-like story. The Red Sox will not be messing with Bard’s mechanics and never let him get comfortable in a position, like what happened to the Yankees pitcher (I don’t believe there will be in any “Bard Rules,” like there were the infamous “Joba Rules.”). Joba Chamberlain was supposed to be the ultimate stud-pitcher, but he was forced to be reliever, starter with restrictions, starter without restrictions, reliever with restrictions, etc. Right now, Joba Chamberlain is nursing an ankle injury (which he got jumping on a trampoline and his bone went through his skin), and his return to professional baseball is in question.

Pitching coach Bob McClure and manager Bobby Valentine have both said that they think it is best for Daniel Bard to go to Triple-A and work on his mechanics without the pressure of trying to win ballgames. I agree with this. It would’ve been much easier to demote Bard to a reliever, bring up Matsuzaka as a starter, and option another reliever to Triple-A (my vote would be Vincente Padilla) and called it a day.

Sending Bard to Triple-A, though, provides Bard with experience, lets him work on his mechanics, and continues his transition as a starter. Everyone knew it wasn’t going to be smooth sailing to have one of the games most dominant, reliable relievers transition to a starter. Bard had good games. The game on April 16th in which the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the Rays comes to mind immediately, with the only run coming on a bases-loaded walk to Evan Longoria in the 7th inning. Yes, Bard walked 7 batters, but he also struck-out 7 and minimized the hits to 4.

It’s also been said that Bard isn’t expected to remain in Triple-A for an extended period of time. Once he gets his mechanics (specifically his arm angle back where it’s supposed to be) in check, Bard should be returning. The Red Sox are set on Bard being a starter, and I think that should be encouraging for Bard.

In 2001 at age 24, after a horrible season in 2000, there was a pitcher who was sent to Single-A to work on his mechanics and rebuild his delivery; his 10.64 ERA in 19 games- 13 starts- is the worst season for any pitcher in history with at least 50 innings pitched. His pitches were clocking in around 95 mph, which was good, but the ball had little movement, which was bad, and were left up in the strike zone, which was worse. This pitcher worked on his mechanics and delivery and started to rely on more than his strength. After a month and a half, he was promoted to Double-A, a month later Triple-A, and by mid-season he was back in the Majors. This pitcher went on to win two Cy Young Awards (one in each league), is an 8-time All-Star (twice as starting pitcher), and has lead his league in complete games 7 times.

Of course, I was referencing Roy Halladay. Is it fair to compare Daniel Bard to Roy Halladay? Maybe not, but I did want to show that even one of the greatest pitchers in the past decade needed help in his younger years. Obviously, Halladay was able to work it out; and hopefully at age 26, Bard can do the same.

What's a Team to Do?

 First, I apologize for not blogging anything this weekend while the Red Sox foundered against the Yankees. It was a busy but great weekend, and I won’t bore you with too many details. I do have to say that I went to a cancer benefit called Cancer Can Kick My Ass (or CCKMA for short) and had a really great time. One of the silent auction items to bid on was four tickets to a New England Patriots game. I wish I had the money to get those tickets AND to get my to Foxborough…. Oh well, still had a great time.

So, I didn’t get to watch Saturday’s game. Since I live in the Midwest, Fox showed the White Sox game instead of the Red Sox-Yankees. That might have been a good thing. I went to a benefit Saturday night anyway, and I was in a great mood when I left. The Sox were up 9-0. When I arrived at the benefit about twenty minutes later, they were down 9-5. When I sat down to eat, it was 9-12. When I was finished eating, I saw the Sox had lost 9-15. How does that happen?!

It happened because of the Red Sox bullpen, which again blew a great start by a pitcher. From the stats and summaries, it appears Doubront pitched a great game, but the relievers were dreadful. Let’s compare:

Pitcher                                       Innings       H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR     ERA
Doubront                                    6.0               4      1      1         3         7        1        3.94
Padilla                                        0.1               4      5      5         1         1        1        9.82
Albers                                        0.0               1       2      1        0         0        1         4.15
Morales, F. (H, 3)                      0.2               2       1      1        0         1        0         6.35
Aceves (BS,2) (L,0-1)               0.0               2       5      5        4         0        0        24.00
Thomas, J.                                 0.2               2       1      1        0         0        0         7.71
Tazawa                                      1.1               1       0      0        0          0       0         0.00
Totals                                         9.0              16     15    14       8         9       3

That’s horrendous! Thanks goodness our first (Doubront) and last (Tazawa) pitchers remembered how to throw the ball to get outs! Aceves is looking almost as bad as Melancon!

And because of this and of no fault to his own, Bard’s start is being skipped. He was originally supposed to start yesterday’s game against the Yankees, but that game was rained out. Bard is now available in the bullpen.

I don’t think this is a good idea, since Bard is doing a good job as a starter and shouldn’t be moved around. But, what can you do? The Red Sox have to stop the bleeding somehow, and this is how the team (whether it was Valentine, Cherington, or the owners) chose to do it. If this helps, I can see Bard becoming the official closer and another pitcher brought in for a starter (Cook at this point and Matsuzaka in 30 days or less).

The Red Sox also traded Michael Bowden to the Cubs for Marlon Byrd. If you remember, Byrd was hit in the face by an Aceves pitch last season and was out for quite some time. Byrd has said that Aceves apologized after that game, and he didn’t think it was on purpose. Byrd is 3-43 this season. That’s a 0.070 batting average.

Maybe a change of scenery will be good for Byrd. Since this is Cubs territory in my part of the Midwest, I’ve heard people talk about Byrd in mostly positive aspects. Plus, Bowden wasn’t doing a thing for the Red Sox. I’m not sure how the trade balances out, but maybe this was Epstein’s olive branch for the defective compensation player the Sox received for him.

Jason Repko, who was brought up to play outfield while Ellsbury is on the DL, also was hurt in this game. Because of this, Lars Anderson was recalled from Triple-A. Yes, Lars Anderson who was the top prospect at one point, was supposed to have taken over playing first base at this point in his career but has instead faltered (which is why the Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez). Now, Anderson is coming in to play outfield. Interesting.

In fifteen games in Pawtucket this year, Anderson is hitting .255 with 1 home run and 8 RBIs. I guess on the plus-side of things, he can play the outfield and first base. Versatility made be a good thing for this Red Sox team.

Crawford, Ellsbury, and, as much as it pains me to say it, Matsuzaka can not come soon enough to the help the Red Sox. Rich Hill should be coming soon as well to help in relief (if he pitches the way he did last year prior to being injured, he’ll be a Godsend). Andrew Miller’s also rehabbing, but he’s so erratic that I think he should stay in Triple- A as long as he needs. No use sending up another pitcher who lets the ball fly out of the park.

The Red Sox’s struggles should not be all on Valentine; in fact, only a minute part of the blame should be passed on him (mainly, leaving Bard in too long last week). In fact, it’s mostly the pitching’s fault. Buchholz needs to get with the program too. Out of the five starters, he looks the worst. He has a 9.00 ERA in three games (17.00 innings). Out of all the pitchers who have pitched for the Sox this season, only Aceves, Melancon, and Padilla have higher ERAs.

For the next 22 games, the Red Sox play teams that were under .500 last year (Twins and White Sox this week). Hopefully, with this schedule, the Red Sox can right the wrongs and get to at least .500 by the middle of next month. Here’s hoping!

*Also, I’m going to keep the blog going for the time being. I viewed the stats this week, and I’m getting a fair amount of views. I’m not sure if people are actually reading it every day/week/month, but it’s an outlet for me.

Trying to Stay Optimistic

The Sox lost last night in an ugly game, 7-3. I should’ve known it would be an ugly game in the 1st inning when Punto, playing shortstop, didn’t make a play on a ball hit to his position, instead allowing the batter to get on base and the runners to advance. It would’ve been a play that Iglesias more than likely would’ve made, and probably Aviles for that matter.

I really don’t want to discuss too much about the game last night. The good thing about the Red Sox is that even with a slow start, you know they’ll eventually get better. If they can’t do it with the players they have, then they’ll figure something else out. The Red Sox have that ability, and it’s good they’re not jumping the gun on using that ability.

Bard wasn’t as bad as the score depicts. He left the game in the 6th inning with two runners on base and the score 3-1. Thomas came in, and the score quickly became 6-1. Bowden gave up a 2-out home run in the 7th, making the score 7-1. It was at this point I shut off the television and fell asleep. It was a frustrating night.

Actually, Bard did pretty well in terms of pitching. He pitched 5 innings, gave up 8 hits, 5 runs (though it could’ve easily have been 2 or 3 runs but was 5 because of defense and Thomas coming in), struck out 6, and only walked 1. He pitched 96 pitches, which wasn’t very efficient but encouraging. Of the 8 hits, 5 were on 2-strike pitches, 2 were infield singles, and 4 others were groundballs. It could’ve easily have gone the other way for Bard, and he knew it:

“Let’s say half of those get fielded, which is probably a normal night. If we catch three or four of those and get outs on them, that’s probably three runs and about thirty pitches, and I’m pitching into the seventh and giving up two runs,” Bard said as quoted by The Boston Globe.

The offense wasn’t very kind to Bard either. The Sox scored 3 runs on 9 hits, 2 of the runs coming in the 9th inning. There was some good news with the hitting: Youkilis got his first two hits of the season, one being a double. Pedroia was 3 for 5 with a double. Sweeney also hit a double.

But the offense needs to pick up; the team can not be carried by four players who are hitting consistently (Pedroia (.364), Gonzalez (.316), Sweeney (.444), and Ortiz- who did not have a hit during last night’s game but is hitting .368 for the season). Ellsbury (.100), Youkilis (.125), and Saltalamacchia (.077) need to pick it up… and quickly. I could also put Cody Ross into the “needing to pick it up” category. His batting average is .188, but he’s been getting on base these and have had a few good hits these past couple games.

Also, what is up with the fans at the Rogers Centre the past two nights? Monday night, there was a big fight in the bleachers, people were ejected, and during the game, things (large crepe paper balls, etc.) kept being thrown on the field. Last night, there was a streaker and some stupid person shining their cellphone into the batter’s eye. Stupid! I understand that some Canadians are still upset with Boston because of they lost the Stanley Cub to the Bruins last year, but that was the Vancouver Cunucks and a
completely different sport!

Well, that’s the end of my rant. Again, I know it’s early and the ship will be righted (it was last year for most of the year afterall), but the Sox needed to get off on a strong footing because of September 2011. They are not doing that, and things seem to be getting worse.

Should Bard be a Reliever?

Daniel Bard has yet to throw a pitch as a starter this season, but there’s a lot of talk about him being sent back to the bullpen. The sad thing is that this talk is because of the lack of reliability in the bullpen, not because Bard can’t handle it at a starter. As Pete Abraham tweeted yesterday, “Daniel Bard could be the first guy to lose his job as a starter without throwing a pitch.”

Yesterday’s 13-12 loss in 11 innings was ugly, no other way of looking at it. The Sox climbed out of a 4-0 deficit early in the game, and there offense looked like it was starting to come around. This game was not loss because of the offense; I have to stress that. This game was loss because of the bullpen (and some can argue the same thing about Thursday’s 3-2 loss as well). Our bullpen is in shambles, and we’re three games into the season.

First, I have to stress that only 1.8% of the season has gone by; so obviously, there’s plenty of time to right the ship. Lucchino has said he wants to expand the payroll (for a starter or relief help), Miller and Hill are making rehab starts, and Aaron Cook is still waiting in Triple-A. Okay, the positives are out of the way; time to gt on the pitching’s case.

Lester did great job pitching Thursday giving up only one run in 7 innings, so I won’t even address that. There have been a couple bright spots in the bullpen as well- Vincent Padilla was one yesterday. After giving up a run in a third of an inning on Thursday, Padilla went 4 innings yesterday without giving up a run and only 2 hits. Franklin Morales also was impressive coming in relief yesterday. Over 2 innings, he gave up no runs, 1 hit, and had 3 strikeouts.

Every other pitcher on this team has been horrible. In the game yesterday, the Aceves and Melancon each had a blown save! Melancon already has an 0-2 record, and they’ve only played three games! In one total innings pitched, Melancon has a 36.00 ERA, has given up five hits, four runs, and one home run (being the walk-off from yesterday). Aceves has yet to record an out, but he has allowed three runs on four hits. I don’t know how it could be any uglier than that.

Granted, our starting pitching hasn’t helped much over Saturday and Sunday. Josh Beckett only lasted 4.2 innings, giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs. Buchholz didn’t give up any home runs, but still managed to only pitch 4 innings and give up 7 runs on 8 hits. Beckett and Buchholz need to get the spider webs/nerves shaken off; they need to pitch better. Period.

Beckett, Buchholz, Melancon, and Aceves are all supposed to be important parts to not only our pitching staff but to our team as a whole. They’re not those pitchers you can slide in and out of the Major League roster without making a difference. They all need to pitch better, but especially our bullpen. The Red Sox should have won yesterday; there’s no way around it. They had a three-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th when Melancon gave up the 3-run homer to Miguel Cabrera to send the game to extra-innings.

The Sox had a two-run lead in bottom of the 11th when Melancon blew that lead and eventually made the team lost on a walk-off, two-run homer from Alex Avila. Detroit is a good team, probably one of the top three teams in the Majors, so kudos to them. But, the Sox need to play better; they need to pitch better. This brings me back to Bard. When Valentine was asked yesterday after the game “Is Bard an option?” his reply was “Might be.”

I was all for letting Bard be a starter and keeping him there, since it’s a position that takes a bit of getting used to, but I’m not sure how much more the Sox can take with these relievers. Valentine may be right in saying that Bard might be the only option the Sox have left. Bard needs to stop the bleeding, either as a reliever or as a starter (by pitching a complete game shut-out, if that’s the way it needs to be).

The Red Sox management needs to make some decisions. They need pitching help, and they need it now. Either make a trade (Lannan wants out of Washington), move some players (Cook moved up as a starter, Bard to bullpen), or create an injury to make a pitcher have a time-out (preferably Melancon, since I’m thinking his nerves are getting in the way). Something needs to be done, and it needs to be done now. The Sox starter 2-10 last year; let’s not have a repeat.

What Would Happen if Bard Became the Closer?

I’m not saying this is a possibility at all, since it’s been pretty well documented that Bard wants to start and the Red Sox are willing to give him that chance. While Valentine has said he’s not ready to commit to who will be the 4th and 5th starters (is this a sign that something is in the works by the Front Office?), it’s pretty obvious that Bard will be the number four starter. I also think he will do well with this role- more on that later.

However, the Red Sox bullpen is still full of question marks. Does Bailey have what it takes to be effective in the AL East? Will he remain healthy throughout the season? Will Melancon crumble or flourish? Who will fill in Aceves’ role if he becomes the 5th starter? Will Rich Hill make it back soon enough to have a dramatic (hopefully positive) impact on the team as a lefty specialist?

I could continue, but I will get to the point. There are more questions than answers with the bullpen right now. There are essentially three candidates to take over the fourth and fifth starter roles at this point- Bard, Aceves, and Doubront. You can argue that Padilla is there as well, but he just strained his right hamstring in the weight room two days ago. Aaron Cook could also be in the mix, but he still seems to be behind the other starters.

My thought was what if Bard became the closer, Bailey was the set-up man, and Melancon fill in for that vital relief spot? This would be much like Bobby Jenks was supposed to last year for Bard and Papelbon. Aceves and Doubront would become the starters then, and the bullpen would look much better, cleaner, and crisper.

Feelings aside, since Bard, Bailey, and Melancon have made their choice of roles on the team very apparent, this may be what’s best for the Red Sox. Bard was the “closer-in- waiting,” if you will, for years, being groomed by the Red Sox, and apprenticing behind Papelbon. Bard has been pretty much the most reliable reliever for the last two years for the Sox, minus his September troubles last year. There’s been questions raised about Bailey’s mentality and health, and Melancon has been a bit scary to watch in Spring Training. If all three took a step back from their desired roles, wouldn’t the Red Sox bullpen look more put together?

I’m not saying that these five pitchers can’t succeed in the roles I’m sure they’ll take over this year. Bard really has only had one bad outing this Spring Training, last Friday, when he gave up seven earned runs. I’m not holding that against him either because in a regular season game, there’s no way he would’ve gone out there after a rain delay. I’m trying to have confidence in Meloncon and Bailey in their roles; the truth is, I don’t really know too much about them other than what’s been said about them. I haven’t seen them play in a regular season game… maybe Bailey once or twice. Aceves and Doubront are essentially battling each other for the 5th starter spot as well.

I just wanted to throw out this “crazy” proposal about what I was thinking about while watching Bard pitch last night. Bard had one bad inning where he gave up three runs and worked very well in the other innings he pitched. I do think he will make a good starter, but I also think he would’ve been a great closer.

Who Starts?

The Red Sox starting rotation consists of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz… and no one after that. Matsuzaka is out until at least the All-Star break after Tommy John surgery (is it strange that I could actually be looking forward to Dice-K returning?) and John Lackey is out all season after Tommy John surgery (sigh of relief from me). After that, there is no one definite for the 4th and 5th starters.

Bard and Aceves have been given the green-light to come to Spring Training as starters. While I’d be perfectly fine with one of these two being a starter (leaning more towards Aceves than Bard, since Bard’s minor league stats as a starter are horrendous compared to his outstanding resume as a reliever), I don’t think you go into Spring Training thinking that both of these pitchers will be starters. Aceves earned the chance to be tried out as a starter; he was great in whatever role Francona put him in as- long-relief, short-relief, spot-starter, mop-up, etc. So, if Aceves becomes the number 4 or 5 starter, than Bard will essentially take over Aceves’ role from last year. However, if Spring Training comes and Bard does better than Aceves, than Bard is the starter and Aceves resumes his role from last year.

Free agent starters are hard to come by this off-season. There was no way the Red Sox could have gone after someone like C.J. Wilson (they still need to pay Lackey and Matsuzaka after all), and I really don’t see Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson signing with the Red Sox as well. Oswalt and Jackson would easily be #3 starters (possibly even #2 starters depending on the organization), and the Sox shouldn’t pay the extra money for these pitchers.

Wakefield is a free-agent, and I personally can’t see him returning. I like Wake; he’s had a great career with the Sox. I would have loved to see him break Roger Clemens’ record for most wins with the Red Sox; but after last year, I think it’s time to say goodbye to Wake. I think Wakefield (and as much as it pangs me, Varitek) will retire, and there will be a goodbye/thank you ceremony during one of the first weeks of the season for him.

Remaining free agent starters are scarce, and after Oswalt and Jackson, kind of scary to ponder about. I’d stay far away from Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, and Scott Kazmir, as injuries have plagued them over the years. Brad Penny’s out there, but after his stint with the Sox a couple years ago, I don’t see him returning. I would love to see the Sox sign Jon Garland and see how he does in Spring Training. I’ve been a fan of his since he was on the White Sox, and I think with the right organization and conditioning (not really sure
if that’s the case with the Sox since they have a new pitching coach), he could be a great #4 or #5 starter.

The Red Sox have already signed “rehab” guys, basically starters who need to prove themselves before landing a spot in the rotation. These non-roster invitees include some interesting names: John Maine, Carlos Silva, Tony Pena. John Maine has a career 4.35 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 6.13 ERA. Carlos Silva has a career 4.68 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 4.22 ERA. Tony Pena has only pitched 1 inning in the Majors back in 2008. He’s mentioned because 1) he’s the son of former Red Sox catcher, Tony Pena, and 2) he’s a converted shortstop. Who knows, maybe among the “rehab” guys the Sox have signed to minor-league contracts, they’ll find some luck (like the Yankees did last year).

The wild card would be that the Sox land Garza. This seemed highly unlikely a few weeks ago when the Cubs kept going back and forth with their “we’re not opposed to trading anyone” and “we’re going to offer Garza an extension.” The Sox originally asked the Cubs for Garza as compensation for Epstein, but they declined. But, Commissioner Selig is stepping in to handle the negotiations after months (and months) of nothing happening. Supposedly, Selig doesn’t like when personnel break contracts to go to other organizations, and the Sox are said to get someone that would prevent this type of move from happening again. I don’t think a straight-up Garza for Epstein is doable, but throwing in a couple prospects (nothing to substantial), I can see this happening.

Yes, the rotation scares me, but I think Cherington’s doing an okay job with what he had to work with. By the All-Star break, Matsuzaka may be able to return, and going on an optimistic branch here, he might do phenomenal, making every Sox fan forget about the agony he has caused us over the years. The Sox might also be able to mold one of their Triple-A, Spring Training invitees into an adequate pitcher as well, and Bard and Aceves might just surprise a few people (including myself). And if all else fails, there’s always a trade to be made (a name floating around is Gavin Floyd from the White Sox). We’ll just have to wait and see what Cherington decides to do.