Who Starts?

The Red Sox starting rotation consists of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz… and no one after that. Matsuzaka is out until at least the All-Star break after Tommy John surgery (is it strange that I could actually be looking forward to Dice-K returning?) and John Lackey is out all season after Tommy John surgery (sigh of relief from me). After that, there is no one definite for the 4th and 5th starters.

Bard and Aceves have been given the green-light to come to Spring Training as starters. While I’d be perfectly fine with one of these two being a starter (leaning more towards Aceves than Bard, since Bard’s minor league stats as a starter are horrendous compared to his outstanding resume as a reliever), I don’t think you go into Spring Training thinking that both of these pitchers will be starters. Aceves earned the chance to be tried out as a starter; he was great in whatever role Francona put him in as- long-relief, short-relief, spot-starter, mop-up, etc. So, if Aceves becomes the number 4 or 5 starter, than Bard will essentially take over Aceves’ role from last year. However, if Spring Training comes and Bard does better than Aceves, than Bard is the starter and Aceves resumes his role from last year.

Free agent starters are hard to come by this off-season. There was no way the Red Sox could have gone after someone like C.J. Wilson (they still need to pay Lackey and Matsuzaka after all), and I really don’t see Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson signing with the Red Sox as well. Oswalt and Jackson would easily be #3 starters (possibly even #2 starters depending on the organization), and the Sox shouldn’t pay the extra money for these pitchers.

Wakefield is a free-agent, and I personally can’t see him returning. I like Wake; he’s had a great career with the Sox. I would have loved to see him break Roger Clemens’ record for most wins with the Red Sox; but after last year, I think it’s time to say goodbye to Wake. I think Wakefield (and as much as it pangs me, Varitek) will retire, and there will be a goodbye/thank you ceremony during one of the first weeks of the season for him.

Remaining free agent starters are scarce, and after Oswalt and Jackson, kind of scary to ponder about. I’d stay far away from Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, and Scott Kazmir, as injuries have plagued them over the years. Brad Penny’s out there, but after his stint with the Sox a couple years ago, I don’t see him returning. I would love to see the Sox sign Jon Garland and see how he does in Spring Training. I’ve been a fan of his since he was on the White Sox, and I think with the right organization and conditioning (not really sure
if that’s the case with the Sox since they have a new pitching coach), he could be a great #4 or #5 starter.

The Red Sox have already signed “rehab” guys, basically starters who need to prove themselves before landing a spot in the rotation. These non-roster invitees include some interesting names: John Maine, Carlos Silva, Tony Pena. John Maine has a career 4.35 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 6.13 ERA. Carlos Silva has a career 4.68 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 4.22 ERA. Tony Pena has only pitched 1 inning in the Majors back in 2008. He’s mentioned because 1) he’s the son of former Red Sox catcher, Tony Pena, and 2) he’s a converted shortstop. Who knows, maybe among the “rehab” guys the Sox have signed to minor-league contracts, they’ll find some luck (like the Yankees did last year).

The wild card would be that the Sox land Garza. This seemed highly unlikely a few weeks ago when the Cubs kept going back and forth with their “we’re not opposed to trading anyone” and “we’re going to offer Garza an extension.” The Sox originally asked the Cubs for Garza as compensation for Epstein, but they declined. But, Commissioner Selig is stepping in to handle the negotiations after months (and months) of nothing happening. Supposedly, Selig doesn’t like when personnel break contracts to go to other organizations, and the Sox are said to get someone that would prevent this type of move from happening again. I don’t think a straight-up Garza for Epstein is doable, but throwing in a couple prospects (nothing to substantial), I can see this happening.

Yes, the rotation scares me, but I think Cherington’s doing an okay job with what he had to work with. By the All-Star break, Matsuzaka may be able to return, and going on an optimistic branch here, he might do phenomenal, making every Sox fan forget about the agony he has caused us over the years. The Sox might also be able to mold one of their Triple-A, Spring Training invitees into an adequate pitcher as well, and Bard and Aceves might just surprise a few people (including myself). And if all else fails, there’s always a trade to be made (a name floating around is Gavin Floyd from the White Sox). We’ll just have to wait and see what Cherington decides to do.