Random Thoughts

Welcome back to a Tuesday edition of the blog.  I apologize for not doing a Red Sox post yesterday; but as I mentioned, it was a busy day getting back into the routine.  In fact, I had so much stuff at work that didn’t get done yesterday, I went in 45 minutes early today.  If that’s not dedication, I don’t know what is.

Today, I’m going to do a Random Thoughts post.  I wasn’t able to watch many Red Sox games last week (though, I listed to a few on the radio), and the Sox didn’t play last night. 

∙  During yesterday’s off day, Pedroia, Saltalamacchia, and Gomes took in the Jays-A’s day game.  I find this refreshing.  Here are these players who make millions of dollars and have to play 162 games during the season, and they love baseball so much, they want to take in a game on their off day… or, they’re scoping out the competition (Red Sox play the Jays today).  Here’s the picture:

Here's the link to the story from the Boston Globe

∙  Ryan Kalish will be undergoing cervical fusion surgery today in Los Angeles.  Basically, this surgery is fusing together bones in the neck or putting in a metal implant.  Either way, it doesn’t sound pleasant.  This isn’t thought to be career-ending for Kalish, but one starts to wonder how Kalish could ever come back to the caliber of player he was after four major surgeries in two years (disc surgery in neck- 2011, left shoulder labrum- 2011, right shoulder labrum- 2013, cervical fusion- 2013).

∙  There has been some speculation (via Twitter, from what I’ve seen) about which pitcher will be the odd-man out once Buchholz returns.  First, let’s make sure Buchholz returns and is effective before we start the speculation.  Second, it’ll be September.  I’ve said all along that a 6-man rotation in September would be the best decision.  It’s always best to go into the post-season with a well-rested team.  Of course, I’m not expert either.

∙  Speaking of starting pitching, which starters would you have pitch in the post-season from the five we have now?  Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy are my choices at the moment, but that could change, of course, down the stretch.

∙  The minor league baseball field in my hometown, Modern Woodmen Park, was one of the finalists for the Best Minor league Ballpark Nominees for 2013 voted on by USAToday readers.  The winner won’t be announced until tomorrow; but as of yesterday, it had a slight lead over Louisville.  I’ll let you know what the outcome is when I find out, but here’s a picture of our great ball field:

Modern Woodmen Park

∙  I received a text from my boyfriend this morning with the message The Sox should sign this guy and a link to a video of Jose Iglesias making a crazy play.  Here’s the link to the video, if you haven't seen it yet:

Iglesias's crazy play

∙  Finally, I’m going to leave you today with two photos.  The first one is from my vacation.  My boyfriend and I were eating lunch at a sandwich shop along Lake Winnipesaukee last week when I snapped this gorgeous photo:

And this photo is of the apartment in Connecticut.  My apartment is the bottom floor, and I love it:

I hope everyone comes back tomorrow for the regularly scheduled Red Sox post.

Lester's the Ace, Right?

Opening Day for the Red sox is exactly two weeks from today. The Spring Training roster is shrinking as prospects are headed to their appropriate affiliates, and players are staying later in the games. The weather may not be screaming “Spring” (it’s snowing at the moment here in Iowa); but in two weeks, Spring Training will be over and the season will officially be underway.

Manager John Farrell hasn’t named the Opening Day starter, but every indication seems to point at Jon Lester. Lester has been dubbed the “Ace” for years now. While some have disputed that he deserves this title, he has remained one of the best pitchers the Red Sox have had over the years. His 2012 stats were anything but “Ace” quality: 9-14 record, 4.82 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and gave up 25 home runs. On a plus side, he did pitch 205.1 innings over the season. Buchholz, arguably the best starter last year, wasn’t much better: 11-8 record, 4.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, gave up 25 home runs, and pitched 189.1 innings.

It’s safe to say that Lester and Buchholz are the Red Sox’s number 1 and 2 starters, no matter which order they’ll end up pitching. They’ll be followed by Ryan Dempster, Felix Doubrant, and John Lackey. Dempster, as I’ve written before, will be an effective member of the pitching staff and an innings-eater for this staff. Doubrant showed last year that he is capable of being a starter, even if it’s been a little slow-going for him this Spring. Lackey is the Wild Card (after recovering from Tommy John surgery last year and having the worst season out of any Red Sox pitcher in history for 2011). Lackey has showed that his elbow is healed this Spring though.

Lester’s been fantastic this Spring, even pitching 6.0 perfect innings and striking out 6 in yesterday’s 5-1 win against the Rays. Lester’s line for the Spring: 3-0 record, 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 16 SO, .50 WHIP. Yes, this is limited. But, it is very encouraging.

Taking a look at the other four starters:

Buchholz: 2-0 record, 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 SO, 0.96 WHIP
Dempster: 1-1 record, 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 SO, 0.87 WHIP
Doubront: 1-1 record, 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 SO, 1.27 WHIP
Lackey: 2-0 record, 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1.65 WHIP

Yes, Lackey’s line is a little disheartening, but he’s also working back from Tommy John surgery and not pitching healthy for years. He’s still a little behind the other starters in terms of innings pitched and such, but from everything I’ve been reading about him, he’s looking much improved from 2011. I guess we (including myself) will have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

My guess is Farrell names Lester the Opening Day pitcher this coming weekend, with the other pitchers lining up as I’ve shown above. He pretty much has the rotation as that in Spring Training anyway, so it makes sense. Lester’s out to prove 2012 was a fluke, and I’m guessing he’s going to be contending for the Cy Young this year. Of course, I made that prediction last year, and Lester did horribly.

What to Do with the Pitching?

Clay Buchholz is making his fifth start tonight. Surprisingly, he is 2-1, but his ERA 8.87 (it has gone down!) and his WHIP is 1.925. He’s given up 33 hits, 23 runs (22 earned runs), 6 home runs, walked 10, while striking 11 in 22.1 innings. Needless to say, Buchholz needs to pitch well tonight.

I may be undeservingly hard on Buchholz, but I think most people are. He’s shown great stuff in the past, pitched a no-hitter on his second career Major League start, won a World Series when he was only 22. Just two seasons ago, he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.203 WHIP, and was sixth in Cy Young voting. We as Red Sox fans know Buchholz has what it takes to pitch in the AL East and help lead this Red Sox fans, so it’s understandable when we get frustrated while we watch him struggle this season.

In Buchholz’s defense, he was out for almost half the season last year with a back injury, and it will take some time to adjust to pitching every fifth day again. He’s had to go from being a fourth or fifth starter to a third starter, completing “The Big Three” of the Red Sox. Maybe he wasn’t ready this year.

And this brings me to the question I have, what to do with the pitching? Aaron Cook is ready to hit the Majors, patiently (or not so patiently perhaps) waiting in Pawtucket. With a May 1st opt-out clause, the Red Sox need to make a decision. In five games with Pawtucket, Cook is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 33.1 innings. He’s given up 26 hits, 9 runs (7 earned runs), 1 home run, walked 11 while striking out 13.

There’s been some talk about having Cook be used as a relief pitcher, that way the Red Sox wouldn’t lose their hold on the pitcher. Cook’s had some problems in the Majors, with a lifetime 4.53 ERA and 1.691 WHIP. But, it’s important to point out that Cook has spent his entire career prior to this year with the Colorado Rockies. The ball travels differently in Colorado, as we all know since they use the Humidor.

Another thing that’s important to point out is Matsuzaka is heading to Pawtucket to continue his rehab assignment. While Matsuzaka didn’t do too well in High-A Salem, in four innings he had a 6.75 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, gave up 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, while striking out 3 and walking 0, he seemed to do better in Double-A Portland- 4.2 innings, 1.93 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 3 hits, 1 run, 0 home runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts.

Of course, this is just a small sampling from Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Matsuzaka has been such an enigma since he’s come to the Red Sox, that we’ve all come to expect a great pitched game followed by a horribly pitched game. But, maybe Bobby Valentine can be the different for Matsuzaka?

So, the Red Sox have some options that they need to consider. Do they keep sending out Buchholz if he continues to pitch the way he does? If not, do they try Aaron Cook as a starter while ushering Buchholz to Triple-A for an injury or “injury?” If they keep with Buchholz, do they use Cook as a reliever? And, what happens when Matsuzaka does finally return?

* If you haven’t noticed, I’m currently in the process of tagging all of the previous posts (there are over 80 of them!). I’m not sure how long this will take, as I have a few things going on that may prevent me from getting them all accomplished in one setting. I hope this is an improvement that people enjoy!

The Red Sox Win Their First Back-To-Back Road Games Since August 2011

It pangs me a little to even write that headline. The last time the Red Sox won consecutive road games was August 23rd-25th, 2001 against the Texas Rangers. That seems like a lifetime ago.

I usually don’t like to express team stats as they go into the previous season, but I had to throw that one out. For some reason, it seems like someone has been playing with a Voodoo doll in the likes of the Red Sox team. They couldn’t catch a break… until now possibly.

I’m convinced that the Red Sox need to work as a team, rather than having a few players carry them. This should seem logical for baseball, but it’s not always the case. So many times, it seems like the Red Sox rely on a player to remain clutch (last year, it seemed like Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez were those players, the year before, Adrian Beltre). Of course, Pedroia and Ortiz are just asked to be consistent… consistently productive.

Again, last night’s game looked like a legitimate team effort, much like the game before. Here’s a look at the Red Sox’s portion of the Boxscore:

All of the starters had at least one hit, besides Cody Ross who at least had an RBI. Aviles hit 4-5 in the lead-off spot, including two doubles and a home run. Ortiz went 2-4 with a home run and 3 RBIs. Youkilis and Byrd, the two players who offense every fan wished would start to pick up, each had two hits.

I admit, I thought things were going to get a little shaky for Beckett in the first inning. He walked in a runner, after all. But, Beckett strapped down, and went six innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, and striking out 5, and didn’t give up a home run. His ERA is 4.56, which is steadily getting lower.

The thing I think so many people need to realize with Beckett is it seems like he always has the one game early on in the season when he’s just not locked in. He’ll give up those runs, but he fights back. I don’t know if people think of him as the pitcher with the bad attitude who seems like it doesn’t care or what, but I’ve always admired Beckett when he pitches. He’s out there to win, and people can tell when watching him.

The relievers last night, Atchison and Albers, also did well. Atchison went 2 innings and gave up no hits while striking out 3. His ERA is now 1.54. Who would’ve thought that Atchison would be one of most dependable relievers this season (to this point, at least)? Albers also did well in one inning, only giving up a hit and no runs. His ERA is a respectable 3.38 in this early part of the season.
Here’s some things to ponder:

* Ortiz is batting .444 at this point of the season, and it seems like he’s heating up even more. In the past seven games, he’s hitting .550 (11/20) with 2 home runs, 2 doubles, 5 RBIs, and 2 walks. He had his fourth-straight multi-hit game and has 28 hits this season, the most he has ever had in April (he had 21 in 1998 and 2001).

* Mike Aviles seems to be a suitable lead-off hitter. So far this season, he’s hitting .333 with a .932 OPS. I hate to say it so soon, but maybe after Ellsbury returns, Aviles stays as the lead-off? Move Pedroia to 2nd, Ellsbury to 3rd, and so on. Also, makes you want to say Marco who, right?

* Technically, the Red Sox are only three games back in their league in the loss column.  The other teams are 10-7.

* Carl Crawford is scheduled to have his elbow examined by Dr. James Andrews... hopefully for reassurance, but you can never be so certain when it comes to Red Sox injuries.

* Rich Hill could possibly be promoted to the Red Sox bullpen this weekend. He pitched a scoreless inning last night for Pawtucket and is scheduled to pitch again tonight. If he does well on back-to-back games, he should be ready to go.

* Also wanted to note that I checked my stats on the blog today, and it was viewed 19 times in one hour yesterday. Whoever is reading the blog, I just wanted to say thank you.

Here’s hoping the Red Sox can keep on this encouraging path!

Should Bard be a Reliever?

Daniel Bard has yet to throw a pitch as a starter this season, but there’s a lot of talk about him being sent back to the bullpen. The sad thing is that this talk is because of the lack of reliability in the bullpen, not because Bard can’t handle it at a starter. As Pete Abraham tweeted yesterday, “Daniel Bard could be the first guy to lose his job as a starter without throwing a pitch.”

Yesterday’s 13-12 loss in 11 innings was ugly, no other way of looking at it. The Sox climbed out of a 4-0 deficit early in the game, and there offense looked like it was starting to come around. This game was not loss because of the offense; I have to stress that. This game was loss because of the bullpen (and some can argue the same thing about Thursday’s 3-2 loss as well). Our bullpen is in shambles, and we’re three games into the season.

First, I have to stress that only 1.8% of the season has gone by; so obviously, there’s plenty of time to right the ship. Lucchino has said he wants to expand the payroll (for a starter or relief help), Miller and Hill are making rehab starts, and Aaron Cook is still waiting in Triple-A. Okay, the positives are out of the way; time to gt on the pitching’s case.

Lester did great job pitching Thursday giving up only one run in 7 innings, so I won’t even address that. There have been a couple bright spots in the bullpen as well- Vincent Padilla was one yesterday. After giving up a run in a third of an inning on Thursday, Padilla went 4 innings yesterday without giving up a run and only 2 hits. Franklin Morales also was impressive coming in relief yesterday. Over 2 innings, he gave up no runs, 1 hit, and had 3 strikeouts.

Every other pitcher on this team has been horrible. In the game yesterday, the Aceves and Melancon each had a blown save! Melancon already has an 0-2 record, and they’ve only played three games! In one total innings pitched, Melancon has a 36.00 ERA, has given up five hits, four runs, and one home run (being the walk-off from yesterday). Aceves has yet to record an out, but he has allowed three runs on four hits. I don’t know how it could be any uglier than that.

Granted, our starting pitching hasn’t helped much over Saturday and Sunday. Josh Beckett only lasted 4.2 innings, giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs. Buchholz didn’t give up any home runs, but still managed to only pitch 4 innings and give up 7 runs on 8 hits. Beckett and Buchholz need to get the spider webs/nerves shaken off; they need to pitch better. Period.

Beckett, Buchholz, Melancon, and Aceves are all supposed to be important parts to not only our pitching staff but to our team as a whole. They’re not those pitchers you can slide in and out of the Major League roster without making a difference. They all need to pitch better, but especially our bullpen. The Red Sox should have won yesterday; there’s no way around it. They had a three-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th when Melancon gave up the 3-run homer to Miguel Cabrera to send the game to extra-innings.

The Sox had a two-run lead in bottom of the 11th when Melancon blew that lead and eventually made the team lost on a walk-off, two-run homer from Alex Avila. Detroit is a good team, probably one of the top three teams in the Majors, so kudos to them. But, the Sox need to play better; they need to pitch better. This brings me back to Bard. When Valentine was asked yesterday after the game “Is Bard an option?” his reply was “Might be.”

I was all for letting Bard be a starter and keeping him there, since it’s a position that takes a bit of getting used to, but I’m not sure how much more the Sox can take with these relievers. Valentine may be right in saying that Bard might be the only option the Sox have left. Bard needs to stop the bleeding, either as a reliever or as a starter (by pitching a complete game shut-out, if that’s the way it needs to be).

The Red Sox management needs to make some decisions. They need pitching help, and they need it now. Either make a trade (Lannan wants out of Washington), move some players (Cook moved up as a starter, Bard to bullpen), or create an injury to make a pitcher have a time-out (preferably Melancon, since I’m thinking his nerves are getting in the way). Something needs to be done, and it needs to be done now. The Sox starter 2-10 last year; let’s not have a repeat.

Who Deserves to be the Opening Day Starter?

Photo courtesy of boston.com

Today, Bobby Valentine announced that Lester will be the Opening Day starter, and Beckett will start for the home opener against the Rays on April 13th. Arguably, both are deserving of being the Opening Day starter, but for the sake of debating, my brother and I discussed this yesterday. He was for Lester, and I was for Beckett.

First, I like Lester as much as I like Beckett. I’m not one of those Beckett-haters that have popped up over time, and I was as disappointed in both of their performances in September last year. I was elated when Lester threw his no-hitter against the Royals in 2008, and I was equally as happy when Beckett threw his one-hit shutout against the Rays last year. They are equals to me.

So yesterday, my brother informed me that he thought Lester would be the Opening Day starter. I also thought this, but I thought Beckett deserved it more after his season last year. My brother simply stated “the fans like Lester more.”

I agree with this; the fans love Lester. Heck, I’m even considering naming my next dog Lester (for the record, I have no intention of getting another dog anytime soon, and if it’s a female, her name will be Tessie). I think one of the reasons so many fans like Lester so much is he overcame so much (cancer) and has become one of the premier pitchers in the Majors.

Lester and Beckett are one of the best one-two punches in the American League, and possibly even the Majors; but based on statistics, I do think Beckett deserves the Opening Day starter position. Last year, Beckett had a 13-7 record with a 2.89 ERA; his WHIP was 1.026, the lowest of his career. Lester had a 15-9 record with a 3.47 ERA, and his WHIP was 1.257, his highest of the past three seasons.

Both Lester and Beckett were All-Stars last year. Beckett ranked 9th in Cy Young voting and was arguably the favorite for most of the season… until September. Based on their seasons last year, Beckett clearly had the better season.

If you factor in Spring Training so far (we’re about half way through at this point), Beckett is also appearing to be the stronger pitcher at this point. In 14.0 innings (4 games), he has a 1.29 ERA and a .79 WHIP. Lester’s line (while only appearing in 2 games thus far and 8.0 innings) is 3.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

I’m aware that Spring Training stats are widely controversial, especially in the earlier games, because pitchers are working on certain pitches and not in their “competitive mode.” However, having watched both Beckett and Lester pitch this Spring Training, it appears Beckett has a slight edge on Lester. Beckett appears a little more comfortable.

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe had some quotes from Valentine regarding the Lester-Beckett tandem. Here’s what Valentine had to say about the situation:

The No. 1 determinant was the conversation I had with Josh where Josh explained to me about starting pitchers and their Opening Day status or mentality or whatever and he thought Jon earned the job last year and didn't do anything to lose it.

So I said, 'You have a lot more knowledge of Opening Day starters and their mentality than I.' I saw the health of both of them and I figured it's an honor both ways, I think. Home opener and opener. So they're both getting an honor.

I think it’s really important to note that Beckett was the one who told Valentine that Lester deserved to be the Opening Day starter. Beckett’s been seen as the “leader” of the pitching staff for a few years now, and it’s nice to see him step up and show respect for Lester. Lester also appreciated this, as he said:

It means a lot. It’s nice to hear. Obviously, we’re good friends, and I know what he thinks of me as a person. But it’s nice to hear him tell other people. I think that’s what people don’t see from Josh. They think he’s kind of this hard ass stubborn guy that doesn’t care and I think he cares more than people think about his teammates and saying something like that means a lot.

Do I think Lester is deserving of the Opening Day starter role? Yes. I think he is a remarkable pitcher, and he seems to be becoming a leader in the clubhouse as well. I also agree with what Valentine said about it being an honor to be the opening day pitcher and the home opening pitcher. Again, I was just debating for the sake of debating with this post. Just interesting to look at the different sides. I guess we’ll get the best of both words, in a way.

Who Starts?

The Red Sox starting rotation consists of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz… and no one after that. Matsuzaka is out until at least the All-Star break after Tommy John surgery (is it strange that I could actually be looking forward to Dice-K returning?) and John Lackey is out all season after Tommy John surgery (sigh of relief from me). After that, there is no one definite for the 4th and 5th starters.

Bard and Aceves have been given the green-light to come to Spring Training as starters. While I’d be perfectly fine with one of these two being a starter (leaning more towards Aceves than Bard, since Bard’s minor league stats as a starter are horrendous compared to his outstanding resume as a reliever), I don’t think you go into Spring Training thinking that both of these pitchers will be starters. Aceves earned the chance to be tried out as a starter; he was great in whatever role Francona put him in as- long-relief, short-relief, spot-starter, mop-up, etc. So, if Aceves becomes the number 4 or 5 starter, than Bard will essentially take over Aceves’ role from last year. However, if Spring Training comes and Bard does better than Aceves, than Bard is the starter and Aceves resumes his role from last year.

Free agent starters are hard to come by this off-season. There was no way the Red Sox could have gone after someone like C.J. Wilson (they still need to pay Lackey and Matsuzaka after all), and I really don’t see Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson signing with the Red Sox as well. Oswalt and Jackson would easily be #3 starters (possibly even #2 starters depending on the organization), and the Sox shouldn’t pay the extra money for these pitchers.

Wakefield is a free-agent, and I personally can’t see him returning. I like Wake; he’s had a great career with the Sox. I would have loved to see him break Roger Clemens’ record for most wins with the Red Sox; but after last year, I think it’s time to say goodbye to Wake. I think Wakefield (and as much as it pangs me, Varitek) will retire, and there will be a goodbye/thank you ceremony during one of the first weeks of the season for him.

Remaining free agent starters are scarce, and after Oswalt and Jackson, kind of scary to ponder about. I’d stay far away from Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, and Scott Kazmir, as injuries have plagued them over the years. Brad Penny’s out there, but after his stint with the Sox a couple years ago, I don’t see him returning. I would love to see the Sox sign Jon Garland and see how he does in Spring Training. I’ve been a fan of his since he was on the White Sox, and I think with the right organization and conditioning (not really sure
if that’s the case with the Sox since they have a new pitching coach), he could be a great #4 or #5 starter.

The Red Sox have already signed “rehab” guys, basically starters who need to prove themselves before landing a spot in the rotation. These non-roster invitees include some interesting names: John Maine, Carlos Silva, Tony Pena. John Maine has a career 4.35 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 6.13 ERA. Carlos Silva has a career 4.68 ERA, and the last time he pitched in the Majors in 2010 had a 4.22 ERA. Tony Pena has only pitched 1 inning in the Majors back in 2008. He’s mentioned because 1) he’s the son of former Red Sox catcher, Tony Pena, and 2) he’s a converted shortstop. Who knows, maybe among the “rehab” guys the Sox have signed to minor-league contracts, they’ll find some luck (like the Yankees did last year).

The wild card would be that the Sox land Garza. This seemed highly unlikely a few weeks ago when the Cubs kept going back and forth with their “we’re not opposed to trading anyone” and “we’re going to offer Garza an extension.” The Sox originally asked the Cubs for Garza as compensation for Epstein, but they declined. But, Commissioner Selig is stepping in to handle the negotiations after months (and months) of nothing happening. Supposedly, Selig doesn’t like when personnel break contracts to go to other organizations, and the Sox are said to get someone that would prevent this type of move from happening again. I don’t think a straight-up Garza for Epstein is doable, but throwing in a couple prospects (nothing to substantial), I can see this happening.

Yes, the rotation scares me, but I think Cherington’s doing an okay job with what he had to work with. By the All-Star break, Matsuzaka may be able to return, and going on an optimistic branch here, he might do phenomenal, making every Sox fan forget about the agony he has caused us over the years. The Sox might also be able to mold one of their Triple-A, Spring Training invitees into an adequate pitcher as well, and Bard and Aceves might just surprise a few people (including myself). And if all else fails, there’s always a trade to be made (a name floating around is Gavin Floyd from the White Sox). We’ll just have to wait and see what Cherington decides to do.