Over/Under

I stated yesterday when I did some of my predictions that I was thinking about doing an over/under post. Well, as luck would have it, The Boston Globe had their own over/under article today, as well as what their “experts” (Tony “Mazz” Massarotti and Chad Finn) thought. I’m going to use their stat predictions and establish my own opinion, as well as state what Mazz and Finn though.

1) Adrian Gonzalez- 35 Home Runs
Mazz: Under.
Finn: Over
Me: Over. A-Gon had 27 home runs last year while recovering from shoulder surgery, and he had 31 the year before while injured and playing half of his games in Petco Park. Gonzalez also had his best year average-wise last year, hitting .338 with 45 doubles. He’s completely healthy this year, and I don’t think he’ll be participating in the Home Run Derby. I’m guessing 42 home runs.

2) David Ortiz- 30 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Papi hit 29 home runs last year and 32 in 2010. Prior to 2010, the last time Papi hit at least 30 home runs was in 2007 when he hit 35. I’m guessing Papi still produces, hits around .280-.290 and gets anywhere from 24-28 home runs. He is 36 after all.

3) Jacoby Ellsbury- 25 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not saying Ellsbury’s going to crush the ball the way he appeared to last year. I’m thinking he’s going to hit around 25 home runs, but I have the tendency to think over that, maybe 26 or 27. He did lead the team with 32 last year.

4) Carl Crawford- .275 Batting Average
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. 2011 was a fluke year for Crawford. In 10 years in the Majors, Crawford’s batting average is .293, and his .255 batting average last year was almost twenty points lower than any other year he had played in more than 100 games. I’m thinking Crawford will rebound nicely, hit between .280-.290, get his speed on the base paths back, and hit between 15-20 home runs. Remember, in 2010, many Red Sox followers though Ellsbury was washed up and a “bum” as well, and he proved them all wrong last year.

5) Jon Lester- 200 Strikeouts
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Strikeout aren’t everything, but they’re a nice stat to look at. Lester had 182 strikeouts last year, only 18 away from 200. If his 10 strikeout Spring Training game this week proved anything, it’s that Lester is still the ace of this team.

6) Daniel Bard- 100 Innings
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Bard wants to start and has been laboring this Spring Training to stretch out his arm and pitch count. He’s committed, and the Red Sox seem to be committed to him starting as well. If Bard makes roughly 20 starts and averages 6 innings a game, he’ll still have 120 innings. The Sox just need to remain committed to him, even when Matsuzaka comes back in May/June/July, whenenver they make the final decision.

7) Josh Beckett- 3.50 ERA
Mazz: Over
Finn: Under
Me: Under. I’ve already stated that I think Beckett will have an ERA between 3.00-3.30. He’s out to prove something, and that’s usually when Beckett does his best.

8) Clay Buchholz- 14 Wins
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Buchholz is a great pitcher when his body doesn’t fail him (and head because while I don’t want to be negative, I have referred to Buchholz as a “head case” on more than one occasion. Please, Buchholz, prove me wrong). He’s only made more than 16 starts in a season once, in 2010 when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. But, Buchholz is still young; he’s 27 this season. He’s also one of those players out to prove the nay-sayers wrong.

9) Andrew Bailey- 25 Saves
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not a big fan of this statistic because any pitcher can ultimately get a save. The Sox have a great line-up and scored the most runs in 2011. Bailey’s career ERA is 2.07, which is a nice ERA to have (for the record, Papelbon’s career ERA is 2.33). I don’t think there’s any question if Bailey stays healthy, he’ll get more than 25 saves. A better question is how many blown saves will he have?

10) Dustin Pedroia- 200 Hits
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Pedroia’s only had over 200 hits once in his career, his MVP season when he hit 213. Pedroia gets walked a lot, and that’ll be the determining factor in the number of hits he gets. I think Pedroia will hit at last .300 again this year though.

11) Ryan Sweeney- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Over. I know; he’s never done it before. But, I have to be optimistic for the guy from Iowa. Depending on how much Sweeney plays (Crawford is reportedly out til May), I think he’ll show some power. I’m going to say at least 7 home runs, depending on how long the Red Sox keep him around.

12) Ryan Lavarnway- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Lavarnway hit 2 home runs in one game last year and hit a total of 34 (in three different levels) last year. Lavarnway will be on the 25-man roster during the season, either as a replacement (injury/trade), back-up, or starter. He’ll be given the chance to produce, and he will produce.

13) Kevin Youkilis- 90 RBIs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Youkilis wants to prove that he can remain healthy this year, and I’m hoping he remains healthy. When it comes to RBIs, I think it’s important to note that Youkilis will most likely be hitting anywhere in the 3-5 range on the line-up. If Gonzelz and/or Ortiz hit runners in before Youkilis, it’ll cut done on the stat. I do think Youk will have around 80 RBIs though.

14) Daisuke Matsuzaka- 6 WinsMazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Matsuzaka has to work back from Tommy John surgery. Even if he comes back to the team in May/June/July, they’ll be starters in front of him (Doubront, Bard, Aceves, Cook, and possibly Miller) that’ll get a chance first. Matsuzaka will be a spot starter though.

15) Jose Iglesias- 81 Games Played In The Majors
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. 81 games is half a season. Unless there are injuries to Aviles and/or Punto, Iglesias will remain in Triple-A until at least the All-Star Break. However, he will be the starting shortstop in
August, in my opinion. I’m excited to see what Iglesias can do in the Majors, but he also needs to work on his offense. Plus, the more I’ve been seeing of Aviles, the more I like him.

I had a lot of fun going through these stat predictions. I may seem like a bit of an optimist, but that’s the point of a new season starting. There’s only possibilities at this point in the season.