Some Predictions

One week from today, the Red Sox kick off their 2012 season against the Detroit Tigers. That’s not exactly who I would want to face to start the season, especially since they’ll be having Justin Verlander, reigning Cy Young and MVP awards winner, but that’s the way it works. Might as well start strong, right?

So, I thought I would do some quick predictions about what I think is going to happen this season. I don’t want to get too wild with my predictions just yet. Maybe I’ll do a post later about standings, award winners, etc. Without further delay, here’s what I think will happen for the Red Sox this season.

* Lester and Beckett are both going to have strong seasons. I’m thinking this may finally be the year when Lester gets his 20 wins, and he’ll have an ERA around the 3.00 mark, maybe even a little lower. I think Beckett’s ERA won’t be as low as last year’s 2.89, but it’ll be between 3.00-3.30; he needs to break “even years bad, odd years good” trend he’s been having the past seven or so seasons.

* Ellsbury will bat leadoff. I know there’s a lot of talk how Ellsbury shouldn’t lead off because he gets on base by getting hits and not necessarily walks (he had 52 last year). However, who else is going to bat leadoff? I’m not buying Aviles or Youkilis or even Pedroia. Crawford doesn’t want to either, and I don’t think he should. Ellsbury is our leadoff hitter, and he’s done really well there the past few years.

* Shoppach (and possibly Aviles) won’t be with the Red Sox after the All-Star Break. I think Lavarnway’s too good to keep in Triple-A until September, and the Sox have already gotten rid of Shoppach once. If both Aviles and Iglesias do well, I can see the Sox trading away Aviles and bringing up Iglesias. However, if Iglesias can’t get his average above .230 in Triple-A, I don’t see a move happening.

* Sweeney and/or McDonald may also be traded. This all depends on how well Kalish does in Triple-A after he comes off the Disabled List. Kalish has been dubbed “the right-fielder of the future” since he took over the position in 2010 when there were more players on the DL than on the active roster, or so it seemed. I could see Sweeney being traded over McDonald since he’s much younger, but it really depends on who the Sox trade for.

* The first Red Sox game on Sunday Night Baseball should be interesting, April 22nd, at Boston, against the Yankees. Besides all the drama that Red Sox-Yankees stirs up, this will be Terry Francona’s first trip back to Fenway. I could also see him interviewing Pedroia during the game. I always loved the banter between “Pedey” and “Tito.”

* Valentine will be ejected more this season than Francona was last season. I may have missed one or two, but I think Francona was tossed four times. I’m guessing Valentine, who is more “vocal” for lack of a better word, will voice his opinion more.

I’ll most likely do another predictions post next week regarding over/under batting averages, fifth starter by the end of the year, and some other more detailed dealings. I just wanted to through this stuff out there, since my mind is starting to get revved up for the season. Also, just had to note, Josh Reddick hit a home run in Japan this morning, and the A’s beat the Mariners 4-1. This game was broadcasted on MLBNetwork this morning.