The American League East has been called the “Beasts in the East” for years. The Red Sox and Yankees dominated the division for years, then the Tampa Bay Rays started to come on strong, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays always being competitive. Last year, the Orioles had their time to shine. This year, it’s anyone’s guess who the will take the division.
Last year, the Orioles surprised everyone by making it to the ALDS. This year, the Jays have obtained an arsenal of players via free agency and trade (R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, John Buck). The Yankees are hurting at the moment (Jeter, Texeira, and Rodriguez are or will be on the disabled list at the beginning of the season), but the Yankees always find a way to win. The Rays have pitching.
So, where will the Red Sox end up this season? Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. I can make some arguments that the Sox will win the division (players have comeback/breakout years, good trades, nice free agent pickups, etc.), and I can make the argument that they will come in last place again (if the injury bug continues to be a problem for the third season in a row, pitching falters again, big names go down, etc.). I do believe the AL East will beat up on each other, and the race will be a tight one.
But, you came here wanting to hear my predictions, so let me entertain you:
Record
87-75 for 2nd Place
I think the Jays will win the division with about 91 wins, followed by the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, and Orioles. I don’t think many games will separate the bottom four teams, and I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox. The Sox could easily be anywhere in the 2nd-4th range, with only a handful of games separating the teams. If injuries don’t become a problem like they have in the past, this could easily be the surprise team of the year.
Lester and Buchholz will have good seasons
I know I said that about Lester last year, but Farrell’s going to make sure Lester is focused on his pitching. I think Lester will have the better ERA by the end of the season (somewhere around 3.00), but Buchholz will have the better record (between 17 and 20 wins). Both pitchers have to remain healthy for this team to have a shot. I’ve been notoriously hard on Buchholz in the past, but I think he’s going to have a breakout season.
Jackie Bradley Junior will spend the majority of his time at the Major League Level
I’ve said it before- the Sox can’t tuck JBJ in the minors when the team needs him. His bat is hot now, and with Ortiz starting the season on the disabled list, the Sox need someone like him in the lineup. He’s going to draw fans to games and to their televisions to see the new talent. He’s part of the future of this team (with Iglesias and Middlebrooks). If he does start to falter, he has the option of going back to Triple-A. But, I think the Sox will likely be sticking with JBJ in the outfield and Gomes as DH while Ortiz is out.
Pedroia will carry this team
He’s had injuries in 2010 (ankle) and 2012 (two, separate injuries to his thumb and a broken ring finger). Pedroia likes to prove people wrong, and he’s going to show all the critics that think he’s “injury prone” or a “fluke” that his ROY and MVP awards are not flukes. Pedroia is going to have a great year, and the naysayers will see he is the unofficial captain of this team.
Saltalamacchia will be better offensively than last year
Salty hit .222 last year with 25 home runs, 59 RBIs, walked 38 times, and stuck out 139 times. My guess, he’ll hit about .250, 28 home runs, 75 RBIs, walk rate will be up a little and strike out rate down.
Bard will spend the majority of the season in Triple-A
Bard, once a consistent reliever, has been pretty shaky lately. Last year, after starting the year as a starter, he was quickly sent to Triple-A and never fully recovered. At times this Spring, he’s seemed like his old self (partly because he is again a reliever and maybe because of Farrell’s presence), but he’s still having issues. Currently, his ERA is at 6.75; he gave up 3 runs in one inning during Wednesday’s game against the Marlins. Bard will eventually make it back to the big club, but he’ll spend most of the season in Triple-A working out the kinks and cobwebs.
Stephen Drew will be traded
The Red Sox signed Drew to a 1 year/$9.5 million contract this offseason. Drew will more than likely start the season on the disabled list while recovering from a concussion, which opens up the door for Iglesias to be the Opening Day shortstop. Iglesias’s glove is there, but he still needs a little more work on his bat. If his bat comes around even remotely (say .220-.230 average), the Sox keep Iglesias and move Drew.
Felix Doubront will not have a good season
Last season, Doubront’s first full season as a starting pitcher, Doubront had an 11-10 with a 4.86 ERA; his WHIP was 1.447. Not horrible (especially compared to the rest of the pitching staff that was pretty much in the same range), but definitely not something a pitcher would like to get used to. Doubront’s only 25, and he’s going to go through some growing pains before he really catches hold as a pitcher. He stated last year that his arm strength declined later in the season. My guess is Doubront will still win about 10 games, but not to the fanfare he did last year (remember, Doubront was considered a bright spot on the Sox’s roster).
And that’s what I have at the moment. It’s kind of hard to do predictions when I haven’t really viewed that many Spring Training games. This is thanks MLB.TV and NESN for not broadcasting too many, not because lack of trying; it’s kind of hard to see how a player’s at bat is going via GameDay. Maybe when the season gets going a little more, and I have a few games viewed I can give better predictions.
I probably won’t be posting again before Opening Day (Easter weekend is upon us). My plan is to do some live tweeting during the game on Monday, so follow me @AshleyAries on Twitter. It’ll be my first time live tweeting a game; so hopefully, it goes well!
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Monday, March 25, 2013
Opening Day is Now One Week Away
The Red Sox season opener is one week away, on April 1st at 12:05 PM at Yankees Stadium. It’s not official, but Lester is thought to be the Opening Day starter and will most likely face CC Sabathia.
It’ll be an interesting game without long-time superstars from both teams, as David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mark Texeria, and Derek Jeter (likely) will start the season on the disabled list. Kevin Youkilis is now the starting third baseman for the Yankees and leads the team in home runs this Spring Training with five. The Yankees also traded for Vernon Wells yesterday, which means they will be paying (part) of one of the worst contacts in MLB history.
The Red Sox’s roster is beginning to take shape. Most likely, it’ll be the following:
Starting Pitchers
LHP Jon Lester
RHP Clay Buchholz
RHP Ryan Dempster
LHP Felix Dubront
RHP John Lackey
Bullpen
RHP Alfredo Aceves
RHP Andrew Bailey
RHP Joel Hanrahan (closer)
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Clayton Mortensen
RHP Junichi Tazawa
RHP Koji Uehara
Lineup
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (LH)
DH/LF Daniel Nava (SH)
2B Dustin Pedroia (RH)
1B Mike Napoli (RH)
3B Will Middlebrooks (RH)
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (SH)
LF/DH Jonny Gomes (RH)
RF Shane Victorino (SH)
SS Jose Iglesias (RH)
Bench
C David Ross (RH)
INF Pedro Ciriaco (RH)
1B/LF Mike Carp (LH)
OF Ryan Sweeney (LH) or Jackie Bradley Junior (LH)
Disabled List
DH David Ortiz (Right foot)
LHP Craig Breslow (shoulder)
LHP Franklin Morales (back)
SS Stephen Drew (concussion)
OF Ryan Kalish (shoulder)
I honestly don’t know what the Red Sox organization will do with Jackie Bradley Junior to start the season. He is clearly the winner of Spring Training hitting .423 with 2 home runs (1 of Cliff Lee yesterday), 2 doubles, 9 RBIs, and walking and striking out 8 times a piece (a great stat, especially for a young player). JBJ is exciting, but the question is do the Sox want to start his Free Agency clock at the start of the season or wait at least 11 days so they get an extra year out of him?
I don’t know about you, but I’m more excited for this season than I have been in the past. It seems that there’s almost a calmness to this team after last year’s three-ring circus with manager Bobby Valentine as ringmaster. As and added bonus, there are young, exciting players that are pushing their way into the spotlight.
Later this week I’ll give my predictions on where I think the team and certain players will end up this season. I was way off last year, so we’ll see how this year transpires.
It’ll be an interesting game without long-time superstars from both teams, as David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mark Texeria, and Derek Jeter (likely) will start the season on the disabled list. Kevin Youkilis is now the starting third baseman for the Yankees and leads the team in home runs this Spring Training with five. The Yankees also traded for Vernon Wells yesterday, which means they will be paying (part) of one of the worst contacts in MLB history.
The Red Sox’s roster is beginning to take shape. Most likely, it’ll be the following:
Starting Pitchers
LHP Jon Lester
RHP Clay Buchholz
RHP Ryan Dempster
LHP Felix Dubront
RHP John Lackey
Bullpen
RHP Alfredo Aceves
RHP Andrew Bailey
RHP Joel Hanrahan (closer)
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Clayton Mortensen
RHP Junichi Tazawa
RHP Koji Uehara
Lineup
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (LH)
DH/LF Daniel Nava (SH)
2B Dustin Pedroia (RH)
1B Mike Napoli (RH)
3B Will Middlebrooks (RH)
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (SH)
LF/DH Jonny Gomes (RH)
RF Shane Victorino (SH)
SS Jose Iglesias (RH)
Bench
C David Ross (RH)
INF Pedro Ciriaco (RH)
1B/LF Mike Carp (LH)
OF Ryan Sweeney (LH) or Jackie Bradley Junior (LH)
Disabled List
DH David Ortiz (Right foot)
LHP Craig Breslow (shoulder)
LHP Franklin Morales (back)
SS Stephen Drew (concussion)
OF Ryan Kalish (shoulder)
I honestly don’t know what the Red Sox organization will do with Jackie Bradley Junior to start the season. He is clearly the winner of Spring Training hitting .423 with 2 home runs (1 of Cliff Lee yesterday), 2 doubles, 9 RBIs, and walking and striking out 8 times a piece (a great stat, especially for a young player). JBJ is exciting, but the question is do the Sox want to start his Free Agency clock at the start of the season or wait at least 11 days so they get an extra year out of him?
I don’t know about you, but I’m more excited for this season than I have been in the past. It seems that there’s almost a calmness to this team after last year’s three-ring circus with manager Bobby Valentine as ringmaster. As and added bonus, there are young, exciting players that are pushing their way into the spotlight.
Later this week I’ll give my predictions on where I think the team and certain players will end up this season. I was way off last year, so we’ll see how this year transpires.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Will Tonight Be The Night The Red Sox Finally Get Over .500?
My guess is no. The Red Sox have had five chances this season to get above .500. They have yet to accomplish that. Tonight, the pitching match-up is Verlander v. Bard. No offense to Bard, but I don’t see the Sox winning this. I don’t think this is going to be a lucky number six sort of thing.
Maybe I’m just overly negative with this team who has been playing very well recently. Players like Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks, Felix Doubront, and Scott Atchison have really stepped up this season. But this Red Sox team, even with the players on the roster right now, should be over .500.
Sunday’s game was a heartbreaker, probably the toughest lost for the Red Sox (and fans) this season, even more so than the Yankees’ game debacle. The Sox had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 9th, and Aceves gave up a two-run home run. Game over. Rays took the series.
Yesterday’s game was both a lucky and deserved win for the Red Sox. Lucky in the fact that a blown third-strike call in the second inning by the home plate umpire became a rally inning for the Red Sox (google Jim Leyland’s reaction’s reaction to the call… very interesting). It was also a deserved win because Felix Doubront, who is the rotation’s best season thus far, pitched a heck of a game, only giving up 2 earned runs (the other 2 runs in the 7-4 win were given up by Aceves, again a two-run home run in the 9th).
But tonight, the Red Sox have Bard, who has been pretty touch-and-go this season, against Justin Verlander, reigning Cy Young and MVP winner. Verlander is one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in the American League. So far this season, he appears to be doing better than last year. His ERA 10 games is 2.15, and his WHIP is .810, which leads the American League. Last year, his ERA was 2.40 and his WHIP was .920.
My predication is the Tigers win 5-2 tonight. Bard will hang in there for six innings, while the score is 2-2. In the seventh, Bard will give up a home run, and Valentine will yank him. Franklin Morales will relieve Bard and give up another two runs. The Sox, however, will win the next two games against the Tigers, and finally be over .500 on May 31st.
Maybe I’m just overly negative with this team who has been playing very well recently. Players like Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks, Felix Doubront, and Scott Atchison have really stepped up this season. But this Red Sox team, even with the players on the roster right now, should be over .500.
Sunday’s game was a heartbreaker, probably the toughest lost for the Red Sox (and fans) this season, even more so than the Yankees’ game debacle. The Sox had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 9th, and Aceves gave up a two-run home run. Game over. Rays took the series.
Yesterday’s game was both a lucky and deserved win for the Red Sox. Lucky in the fact that a blown third-strike call in the second inning by the home plate umpire became a rally inning for the Red Sox (google Jim Leyland’s reaction’s reaction to the call… very interesting). It was also a deserved win because Felix Doubront, who is the rotation’s best season thus far, pitched a heck of a game, only giving up 2 earned runs (the other 2 runs in the 7-4 win were given up by Aceves, again a two-run home run in the 9th).
But tonight, the Red Sox have Bard, who has been pretty touch-and-go this season, against Justin Verlander, reigning Cy Young and MVP winner. Verlander is one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in the American League. So far this season, he appears to be doing better than last year. His ERA 10 games is 2.15, and his WHIP is .810, which leads the American League. Last year, his ERA was 2.40 and his WHIP was .920.
My predication is the Tigers win 5-2 tonight. Bard will hang in there for six innings, while the score is 2-2. In the seventh, Bard will give up a home run, and Valentine will yank him. Franklin Morales will relieve Bard and give up another two runs. The Sox, however, will win the next two games against the Tigers, and finally be over .500 on May 31st.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Opening Day Eve
Tomorrow is Opening Day, but the Cardinals at Marlins game is tonight. Last week, the A’s and Mariners played two official games in Japan. No wonder I haven’t been able to find a dependable Opening Day clock on the internet. One of my co-workers, a Cardinals fan, asked me today what the countdown was for the game tonight, and I couldnt find anything. Can’t use real math either.
Anyway, Opening Day for the Red Sox is tomorrow in Detroit. Verlander v. Lester. Games starts at noon, Central time. I am taking a half-day of work tomorrow just so I can enjoy the first game of the 2012 season.
However, I can’t help but be a little concerned about what the Sox chances are this year. I’m trying to be optimistic, but I’m not really sure what this team is capable. They seem like a team hungry to prove all the critics wrong, but I’m not sure, and it pains me to say it, they have the talent this year. The AL East has four legitimate contenders in the same division in the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays (FYI- the Orioles lost to a college team today. Even if they weren't playing MLB-caliber players, what does that say about the orgainziation?). If the Sox were in any other division, I would say they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but in the AL East, it’s hard to say.
Last year was so disappointing from having the 100-win season predictions staring in December to overcoming the horrible Aprilto being the best team in baseball most of the summer to the historical collapse in September. As a fan, those emotions take a lot out of you, and I can only imagine what it feels like as a player, manager, coach, etc. of that team. This year, there seems to be so many question marks floating around that it’s hard to really grasp what the Red Sox really look like.
I know the Opening Day roster doesn’t mean a whole lot in the great scheme of things, but I thought I’d show what the Sox will look like when they take the field tomorrow:
Lineup:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Sweeney RF
Ross LF
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles SS
SP: Lester
Relievers: Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Padilla, Atchinson, Thomas, Albers, Bowden
Bench: McDonald, Punto, Shoppach
Other Starters: Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard
There are 13 pitchers on this roster, and I don’t see that staying around very long. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal roster either, since Crawford and Bailey are on the DL. Crawford is said to be coming back in May, but Bailey will be out at least 3-4 months. Valentine said today that Aceves will be in the closer role tomorrow, and will be looked at as a closer if he’s not available, then Melancon will be the closer.
I had a quick discussion with one of my fellow Red Sox friends yesterday about being a little frightened for this season. Here are some the things we touched on:
* The starting pitching really hinges on Buchholz- Lester and Beckett will hopefully continue their dominance from last year and Spring Training, and Doubront and Bard are both rookies in starting roles in the Majors. Buchholz needs stay healthy and pitch like people know he can pitch- All-Star-caliber. If one of the starts goes down, then I feel comfortable with putting Aceves in that role or calling up Cook. Matsuzaka will be coming back at some point in the first half of the season too. But, Buchholz is the key.
* The right side of the infield (Gonzalez and Pedroia) is one of the best in the Majors, but the left side (Aviles and Youkilis) is a little shaky. If Youk stays healthy, I think third base will be fine, but shortstop has remained the black hole position (it’s been that way since No-mah). Yes, Aviles impressed me this Spring Training, and I think he’ll do well offensively. Defensively, I’d rather have Iglesias there. Maybe when Crawford comes back and starts hitting around .300 again, Iglesias will be given a shot.
* Cody Ross is going to be an electric personality for the Red Sox, and they should do everything in their power to show that. I saw one report where it said that Cody Ross makes Kevin Millar look like a wallflower. I never thought those words would be used in the same sentence. The Sox need to embrace Ross and show him off the public (not like a show dog though), like they do with Pedroia and Papi. People need to see the Sox in a good light rather than the light they saw them in September.
* The bullpen scares me, much as it does every year. I know the bullpen is a fluid role, pitchers come and go depending on whose hot and not, but looking at it right now doesn’t bring to mind many good thoughts. I’ve heard critics saying that Padilla will be a force and Melancon has the stuff of closers, but I’m not buying it. The past few years, we, as fans, could always think “if (enter starting pitchers name) can make it to the seventh or eighth inning, Bard will pitch the 8th and Pap the 9th.” Can’t say that now. Aside from Aceves, I don’t see a pitcher who can really strike fear into a batter. This, of course, can change as the year goes on. Rich Hill will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in
the next couple months, so there’s that to look forward to.
* The bench looks okay to me. McDonald’s always been one of those guys who can deliver an important hit… or pitch an inning if need be. Punto can play almost any position, but he’s a career .249 hitter (he did hit .278 in 66 games for the Cards last year though). Shoppach will be okay as a back-up, and he’ll probably be traded at some point this season to make room for Lavarnway. When Crawford comes back from the DL, Sweeny and Ross will make a nice platoon in right field.
The Red Sox are going to hit and score runs this season, there’s no way of doubting that. As always, pitching is the key. To really be the team to beat in the East, the Sox need to have their pitcher locked-in. I think Bob McClure has done a much better job as pitching coach this season that Curt Young did last year. The starters, Aceves, Cook, and maybe even Padilla all seem to have a fire in them; and hopefully, the bullpen will look that way as well.
I’ve seen the Red Sox predicted to end anywhere from first to fourth in the AL East this year. I don’t know if I can really predict where the Sox will land because there’s so much uncertainty with this team and with the other teams in the East. Are the Yankees too old and have too many pitching problems (Pineda and Joba are out for some time)? Do the Rays have enough offense to help their pitching? Will the Blue Jays stay around all season or fade at the end? The Orioles… maybe next year.
So, if I had to make a bold prediction, I’ll say the Red Sox finish first, by a game or two ahead of the Yankees because the Yankees will find money/trade chips to acquire what they need. The Sox’s pitching will fall into place around May/June with the additions of Hill and Matsuzaka. Aaron Cook will be traded for bullpen help.
Here are my 2012 predictions:
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Yankees, Angels
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcards: Braves, Cardinals
ALCS: Rangers over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
World Series: Rangers over Phillies
Here’s hoping for a great Red Sox 2012 season!
Anyway, Opening Day for the Red Sox is tomorrow in Detroit. Verlander v. Lester. Games starts at noon, Central time. I am taking a half-day of work tomorrow just so I can enjoy the first game of the 2012 season.
However, I can’t help but be a little concerned about what the Sox chances are this year. I’m trying to be optimistic, but I’m not really sure what this team is capable. They seem like a team hungry to prove all the critics wrong, but I’m not sure, and it pains me to say it, they have the talent this year. The AL East has four legitimate contenders in the same division in the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays (FYI- the Orioles lost to a college team today. Even if they weren't playing MLB-caliber players, what does that say about the orgainziation?). If the Sox were in any other division, I would say they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but in the AL East, it’s hard to say.
Last year was so disappointing from having the 100-win season predictions staring in December to overcoming the horrible Aprilto being the best team in baseball most of the summer to the historical collapse in September. As a fan, those emotions take a lot out of you, and I can only imagine what it feels like as a player, manager, coach, etc. of that team. This year, there seems to be so many question marks floating around that it’s hard to really grasp what the Red Sox really look like.
I know the Opening Day roster doesn’t mean a whole lot in the great scheme of things, but I thought I’d show what the Sox will look like when they take the field tomorrow:
Lineup:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Sweeney RF
Ross LF
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles SS
SP: Lester
Relievers: Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Padilla, Atchinson, Thomas, Albers, Bowden
Bench: McDonald, Punto, Shoppach
Other Starters: Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard
There are 13 pitchers on this roster, and I don’t see that staying around very long. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal roster either, since Crawford and Bailey are on the DL. Crawford is said to be coming back in May, but Bailey will be out at least 3-4 months. Valentine said today that Aceves will be in the closer role tomorrow, and will be looked at as a closer if he’s not available, then Melancon will be the closer.
I had a quick discussion with one of my fellow Red Sox friends yesterday about being a little frightened for this season. Here are some the things we touched on:
* The starting pitching really hinges on Buchholz- Lester and Beckett will hopefully continue their dominance from last year and Spring Training, and Doubront and Bard are both rookies in starting roles in the Majors. Buchholz needs stay healthy and pitch like people know he can pitch- All-Star-caliber. If one of the starts goes down, then I feel comfortable with putting Aceves in that role or calling up Cook. Matsuzaka will be coming back at some point in the first half of the season too. But, Buchholz is the key.
* The right side of the infield (Gonzalez and Pedroia) is one of the best in the Majors, but the left side (Aviles and Youkilis) is a little shaky. If Youk stays healthy, I think third base will be fine, but shortstop has remained the black hole position (it’s been that way since No-mah). Yes, Aviles impressed me this Spring Training, and I think he’ll do well offensively. Defensively, I’d rather have Iglesias there. Maybe when Crawford comes back and starts hitting around .300 again, Iglesias will be given a shot.
* Cody Ross is going to be an electric personality for the Red Sox, and they should do everything in their power to show that. I saw one report where it said that Cody Ross makes Kevin Millar look like a wallflower. I never thought those words would be used in the same sentence. The Sox need to embrace Ross and show him off the public (not like a show dog though), like they do with Pedroia and Papi. People need to see the Sox in a good light rather than the light they saw them in September.
* The bullpen scares me, much as it does every year. I know the bullpen is a fluid role, pitchers come and go depending on whose hot and not, but looking at it right now doesn’t bring to mind many good thoughts. I’ve heard critics saying that Padilla will be a force and Melancon has the stuff of closers, but I’m not buying it. The past few years, we, as fans, could always think “if (enter starting pitchers name) can make it to the seventh or eighth inning, Bard will pitch the 8th and Pap the 9th.” Can’t say that now. Aside from Aceves, I don’t see a pitcher who can really strike fear into a batter. This, of course, can change as the year goes on. Rich Hill will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in
the next couple months, so there’s that to look forward to.
* The bench looks okay to me. McDonald’s always been one of those guys who can deliver an important hit… or pitch an inning if need be. Punto can play almost any position, but he’s a career .249 hitter (he did hit .278 in 66 games for the Cards last year though). Shoppach will be okay as a back-up, and he’ll probably be traded at some point this season to make room for Lavarnway. When Crawford comes back from the DL, Sweeny and Ross will make a nice platoon in right field.
The Red Sox are going to hit and score runs this season, there’s no way of doubting that. As always, pitching is the key. To really be the team to beat in the East, the Sox need to have their pitcher locked-in. I think Bob McClure has done a much better job as pitching coach this season that Curt Young did last year. The starters, Aceves, Cook, and maybe even Padilla all seem to have a fire in them; and hopefully, the bullpen will look that way as well.
I’ve seen the Red Sox predicted to end anywhere from first to fourth in the AL East this year. I don’t know if I can really predict where the Sox will land because there’s so much uncertainty with this team and with the other teams in the East. Are the Yankees too old and have too many pitching problems (Pineda and Joba are out for some time)? Do the Rays have enough offense to help their pitching? Will the Blue Jays stay around all season or fade at the end? The Orioles… maybe next year.
So, if I had to make a bold prediction, I’ll say the Red Sox finish first, by a game or two ahead of the Yankees because the Yankees will find money/trade chips to acquire what they need. The Sox’s pitching will fall into place around May/June with the additions of Hill and Matsuzaka. Aaron Cook will be traded for bullpen help.
Here are my 2012 predictions:
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Yankees, Angels
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcards: Braves, Cardinals
ALCS: Rangers over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
World Series: Rangers over Phillies
Here’s hoping for a great Red Sox 2012 season!
Friday, March 30, 2012
Over/Under
I stated yesterday when I did some of my predictions that I was thinking about doing an over/under post. Well, as luck would have it, The Boston Globe had their own over/under article today, as well as what their “experts” (Tony “Mazz” Massarotti and Chad Finn) thought. I’m going to use their stat predictions and establish my own opinion, as well as state what Mazz and Finn though.
1) Adrian Gonzalez- 35 Home Runs
Mazz: Under.
Finn: Over
Me: Over. A-Gon had 27 home runs last year while recovering from shoulder surgery, and he had 31 the year before while injured and playing half of his games in Petco Park. Gonzalez also had his best year average-wise last year, hitting .338 with 45 doubles. He’s completely healthy this year, and I don’t think he’ll be participating in the Home Run Derby. I’m guessing 42 home runs.
2) David Ortiz- 30 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Papi hit 29 home runs last year and 32 in 2010. Prior to 2010, the last time Papi hit at least 30 home runs was in 2007 when he hit 35. I’m guessing Papi still produces, hits around .280-.290 and gets anywhere from 24-28 home runs. He is 36 after all.
3) Jacoby Ellsbury- 25 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not saying Ellsbury’s going to crush the ball the way he appeared to last year. I’m thinking he’s going to hit around 25 home runs, but I have the tendency to think over that, maybe 26 or 27. He did lead the team with 32 last year.
4) Carl Crawford- .275 Batting Average
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. 2011 was a fluke year for Crawford. In 10 years in the Majors, Crawford’s batting average is .293, and his .255 batting average last year was almost twenty points lower than any other year he had played in more than 100 games. I’m thinking Crawford will rebound nicely, hit between .280-.290, get his speed on the base paths back, and hit between 15-20 home runs. Remember, in 2010, many Red Sox followers though Ellsbury was washed up and a “bum” as well, and he proved them all wrong last year.
5) Jon Lester- 200 Strikeouts
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Strikeout aren’t everything, but they’re a nice stat to look at. Lester had 182 strikeouts last year, only 18 away from 200. If his 10 strikeout Spring Training game this week proved anything, it’s that Lester is still the ace of this team.
6) Daniel Bard- 100 Innings
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Bard wants to start and has been laboring this Spring Training to stretch out his arm and pitch count. He’s committed, and the Red Sox seem to be committed to him starting as well. If Bard makes roughly 20 starts and averages 6 innings a game, he’ll still have 120 innings. The Sox just need to remain committed to him, even when Matsuzaka comes back in May/June/July, whenenver they make the final decision.
7) Josh Beckett- 3.50 ERA
Mazz: Over
Finn: Under
Me: Under. I’ve already stated that I think Beckett will have an ERA between 3.00-3.30. He’s out to prove something, and that’s usually when Beckett does his best.
8) Clay Buchholz- 14 Wins
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Buchholz is a great pitcher when his body doesn’t fail him (and head because while I don’t want to be negative, I have referred to Buchholz as a “head case” on more than one occasion. Please, Buchholz, prove me wrong). He’s only made more than 16 starts in a season once, in 2010 when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. But, Buchholz is still young; he’s 27 this season. He’s also one of those players out to prove the nay-sayers wrong.
9) Andrew Bailey- 25 Saves
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not a big fan of this statistic because any pitcher can ultimately get a save. The Sox have a great line-up and scored the most runs in 2011. Bailey’s career ERA is 2.07, which is a nice ERA to have (for the record, Papelbon’s career ERA is 2.33). I don’t think there’s any question if Bailey stays healthy, he’ll get more than 25 saves. A better question is how many blown saves will he have?
10) Dustin Pedroia- 200 Hits
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Pedroia’s only had over 200 hits once in his career, his MVP season when he hit 213. Pedroia gets walked a lot, and that’ll be the determining factor in the number of hits he gets. I think Pedroia will hit at last .300 again this year though.
11) Ryan Sweeney- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Over. I know; he’s never done it before. But, I have to be optimistic for the guy from Iowa. Depending on how much Sweeney plays (Crawford is reportedly out til May), I think he’ll show some power. I’m going to say at least 7 home runs, depending on how long the Red Sox keep him around.
12) Ryan Lavarnway- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Lavarnway hit 2 home runs in one game last year and hit a total of 34 (in three different levels) last year. Lavarnway will be on the 25-man roster during the season, either as a replacement (injury/trade), back-up, or starter. He’ll be given the chance to produce, and he will produce.
13) Kevin Youkilis- 90 RBIs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Youkilis wants to prove that he can remain healthy this year, and I’m hoping he remains healthy. When it comes to RBIs, I think it’s important to note that Youkilis will most likely be hitting anywhere in the 3-5 range on the line-up. If Gonzelz and/or Ortiz hit runners in before Youkilis, it’ll cut done on the stat. I do think Youk will have around 80 RBIs though.
14) Daisuke Matsuzaka- 6 WinsMazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Matsuzaka has to work back from Tommy John surgery. Even if he comes back to the team in May/June/July, they’ll be starters in front of him (Doubront, Bard, Aceves, Cook, and possibly Miller) that’ll get a chance first. Matsuzaka will be a spot starter though.
15) Jose Iglesias- 81 Games Played In The Majors
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. 81 games is half a season. Unless there are injuries to Aviles and/or Punto, Iglesias will remain in Triple-A until at least the All-Star Break. However, he will be the starting shortstop in
August, in my opinion. I’m excited to see what Iglesias can do in the Majors, but he also needs to work on his offense. Plus, the more I’ve been seeing of Aviles, the more I like him.
I had a lot of fun going through these stat predictions. I may seem like a bit of an optimist, but that’s the point of a new season starting. There’s only possibilities at this point in the season.
1) Adrian Gonzalez- 35 Home Runs
Mazz: Under.
Finn: Over
Me: Over. A-Gon had 27 home runs last year while recovering from shoulder surgery, and he had 31 the year before while injured and playing half of his games in Petco Park. Gonzalez also had his best year average-wise last year, hitting .338 with 45 doubles. He’s completely healthy this year, and I don’t think he’ll be participating in the Home Run Derby. I’m guessing 42 home runs.
2) David Ortiz- 30 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Papi hit 29 home runs last year and 32 in 2010. Prior to 2010, the last time Papi hit at least 30 home runs was in 2007 when he hit 35. I’m guessing Papi still produces, hits around .280-.290 and gets anywhere from 24-28 home runs. He is 36 after all.
3) Jacoby Ellsbury- 25 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not saying Ellsbury’s going to crush the ball the way he appeared to last year. I’m thinking he’s going to hit around 25 home runs, but I have the tendency to think over that, maybe 26 or 27. He did lead the team with 32 last year.
4) Carl Crawford- .275 Batting Average
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. 2011 was a fluke year for Crawford. In 10 years in the Majors, Crawford’s batting average is .293, and his .255 batting average last year was almost twenty points lower than any other year he had played in more than 100 games. I’m thinking Crawford will rebound nicely, hit between .280-.290, get his speed on the base paths back, and hit between 15-20 home runs. Remember, in 2010, many Red Sox followers though Ellsbury was washed up and a “bum” as well, and he proved them all wrong last year.
5) Jon Lester- 200 Strikeouts
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Strikeout aren’t everything, but they’re a nice stat to look at. Lester had 182 strikeouts last year, only 18 away from 200. If his 10 strikeout Spring Training game this week proved anything, it’s that Lester is still the ace of this team.
6) Daniel Bard- 100 Innings
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Bard wants to start and has been laboring this Spring Training to stretch out his arm and pitch count. He’s committed, and the Red Sox seem to be committed to him starting as well. If Bard makes roughly 20 starts and averages 6 innings a game, he’ll still have 120 innings. The Sox just need to remain committed to him, even when Matsuzaka comes back in May/June/July, whenenver they make the final decision.
7) Josh Beckett- 3.50 ERA
Mazz: Over
Finn: Under
Me: Under. I’ve already stated that I think Beckett will have an ERA between 3.00-3.30. He’s out to prove something, and that’s usually when Beckett does his best.
8) Clay Buchholz- 14 Wins
Mazz: Under
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Buchholz is a great pitcher when his body doesn’t fail him (and head because while I don’t want to be negative, I have referred to Buchholz as a “head case” on more than one occasion. Please, Buchholz, prove me wrong). He’s only made more than 16 starts in a season once, in 2010 when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. But, Buchholz is still young; he’s 27 this season. He’s also one of those players out to prove the nay-sayers wrong.
9) Andrew Bailey- 25 Saves
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. I’m not a big fan of this statistic because any pitcher can ultimately get a save. The Sox have a great line-up and scored the most runs in 2011. Bailey’s career ERA is 2.07, which is a nice ERA to have (for the record, Papelbon’s career ERA is 2.33). I don’t think there’s any question if Bailey stays healthy, he’ll get more than 25 saves. A better question is how many blown saves will he have?
10) Dustin Pedroia- 200 Hits
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Pedroia’s only had over 200 hits once in his career, his MVP season when he hit 213. Pedroia gets walked a lot, and that’ll be the determining factor in the number of hits he gets. I think Pedroia will hit at last .300 again this year though.
11) Ryan Sweeney- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Over. I know; he’s never done it before. But, I have to be optimistic for the guy from Iowa. Depending on how much Sweeney plays (Crawford is reportedly out til May), I think he’ll show some power. I’m going to say at least 7 home runs, depending on how long the Red Sox keep him around.
12) Ryan Lavarnway- 5 Home Runs
Mazz: Over
Finn: Over
Me: Over. Lavarnway hit 2 home runs in one game last year and hit a total of 34 (in three different levels) last year. Lavarnway will be on the 25-man roster during the season, either as a replacement (injury/trade), back-up, or starter. He’ll be given the chance to produce, and he will produce.
13) Kevin Youkilis- 90 RBIs
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Youkilis wants to prove that he can remain healthy this year, and I’m hoping he remains healthy. When it comes to RBIs, I think it’s important to note that Youkilis will most likely be hitting anywhere in the 3-5 range on the line-up. If Gonzelz and/or Ortiz hit runners in before Youkilis, it’ll cut done on the stat. I do think Youk will have around 80 RBIs though.
14) Daisuke Matsuzaka- 6 WinsMazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. Matsuzaka has to work back from Tommy John surgery. Even if he comes back to the team in May/June/July, they’ll be starters in front of him (Doubront, Bard, Aceves, Cook, and possibly Miller) that’ll get a chance first. Matsuzaka will be a spot starter though.
15) Jose Iglesias- 81 Games Played In The Majors
Mazz: Under
Finn: Under
Me: Under. 81 games is half a season. Unless there are injuries to Aviles and/or Punto, Iglesias will remain in Triple-A until at least the All-Star Break. However, he will be the starting shortstop in
August, in my opinion. I’m excited to see what Iglesias can do in the Majors, but he also needs to work on his offense. Plus, the more I’ve been seeing of Aviles, the more I like him.
I had a lot of fun going through these stat predictions. I may seem like a bit of an optimist, but that’s the point of a new season starting. There’s only possibilities at this point in the season.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Some Predictions
One week from today, the Red Sox kick off their 2012 season against the Detroit Tigers. That’s not exactly who I would want to face to start the season, especially since they’ll be having Justin Verlander, reigning Cy Young and MVP awards winner, but that’s the way it works. Might as well start strong, right?
So, I thought I would do some quick predictions about what I think is going to happen this season. I don’t want to get too wild with my predictions just yet. Maybe I’ll do a post later about standings, award winners, etc. Without further delay, here’s what I think will happen for the Red Sox this season.
* Lester and Beckett are both going to have strong seasons. I’m thinking this may finally be the year when Lester gets his 20 wins, and he’ll have an ERA around the 3.00 mark, maybe even a little lower. I think Beckett’s ERA won’t be as low as last year’s 2.89, but it’ll be between 3.00-3.30; he needs to break “even years bad, odd years good” trend he’s been having the past seven or so seasons.
* Ellsbury will bat leadoff. I know there’s a lot of talk how Ellsbury shouldn’t lead off because he gets on base by getting hits and not necessarily walks (he had 52 last year). However, who else is going to bat leadoff? I’m not buying Aviles or Youkilis or even Pedroia. Crawford doesn’t want to either, and I don’t think he should. Ellsbury is our leadoff hitter, and he’s done really well there the past few years.
* Shoppach (and possibly Aviles) won’t be with the Red Sox after the All-Star Break. I think Lavarnway’s too good to keep in Triple-A until September, and the Sox have already gotten rid of Shoppach once. If both Aviles and Iglesias do well, I can see the Sox trading away Aviles and bringing up Iglesias. However, if Iglesias can’t get his average above .230 in Triple-A, I don’t see a move happening.
* Sweeney and/or McDonald may also be traded. This all depends on how well Kalish does in Triple-A after he comes off the Disabled List. Kalish has been dubbed “the right-fielder of the future” since he took over the position in 2010 when there were more players on the DL than on the active roster, or so it seemed. I could see Sweeney being traded over McDonald since he’s much younger, but it really depends on who the Sox trade for.
* The first Red Sox game on Sunday Night Baseball should be interesting, April 22nd, at Boston, against the Yankees. Besides all the drama that Red Sox-Yankees stirs up, this will be Terry Francona’s first trip back to Fenway. I could also see him interviewing Pedroia during the game. I always loved the banter between “Pedey” and “Tito.”
* Valentine will be ejected more this season than Francona was last season. I may have missed one or two, but I think Francona was tossed four times. I’m guessing Valentine, who is more “vocal” for lack of a better word, will voice his opinion more.
I’ll most likely do another predictions post next week regarding over/under batting averages, fifth starter by the end of the year, and some other more detailed dealings. I just wanted to through this stuff out there, since my mind is starting to get revved up for the season. Also, just had to note, Josh Reddick hit a home run in Japan this morning, and the A’s beat the Mariners 4-1. This game was broadcasted on MLBNetwork this morning.
So, I thought I would do some quick predictions about what I think is going to happen this season. I don’t want to get too wild with my predictions just yet. Maybe I’ll do a post later about standings, award winners, etc. Without further delay, here’s what I think will happen for the Red Sox this season.
* Lester and Beckett are both going to have strong seasons. I’m thinking this may finally be the year when Lester gets his 20 wins, and he’ll have an ERA around the 3.00 mark, maybe even a little lower. I think Beckett’s ERA won’t be as low as last year’s 2.89, but it’ll be between 3.00-3.30; he needs to break “even years bad, odd years good” trend he’s been having the past seven or so seasons.
* Ellsbury will bat leadoff. I know there’s a lot of talk how Ellsbury shouldn’t lead off because he gets on base by getting hits and not necessarily walks (he had 52 last year). However, who else is going to bat leadoff? I’m not buying Aviles or Youkilis or even Pedroia. Crawford doesn’t want to either, and I don’t think he should. Ellsbury is our leadoff hitter, and he’s done really well there the past few years.
* Shoppach (and possibly Aviles) won’t be with the Red Sox after the All-Star Break. I think Lavarnway’s too good to keep in Triple-A until September, and the Sox have already gotten rid of Shoppach once. If both Aviles and Iglesias do well, I can see the Sox trading away Aviles and bringing up Iglesias. However, if Iglesias can’t get his average above .230 in Triple-A, I don’t see a move happening.
* Sweeney and/or McDonald may also be traded. This all depends on how well Kalish does in Triple-A after he comes off the Disabled List. Kalish has been dubbed “the right-fielder of the future” since he took over the position in 2010 when there were more players on the DL than on the active roster, or so it seemed. I could see Sweeney being traded over McDonald since he’s much younger, but it really depends on who the Sox trade for.
* The first Red Sox game on Sunday Night Baseball should be interesting, April 22nd, at Boston, against the Yankees. Besides all the drama that Red Sox-Yankees stirs up, this will be Terry Francona’s first trip back to Fenway. I could also see him interviewing Pedroia during the game. I always loved the banter between “Pedey” and “Tito.”
* Valentine will be ejected more this season than Francona was last season. I may have missed one or two, but I think Francona was tossed four times. I’m guessing Valentine, who is more “vocal” for lack of a better word, will voice his opinion more.
I’ll most likely do another predictions post next week regarding over/under batting averages, fifth starter by the end of the year, and some other more detailed dealings. I just wanted to through this stuff out there, since my mind is starting to get revved up for the season. Also, just had to note, Josh Reddick hit a home run in Japan this morning, and the A’s beat the Mariners 4-1. This game was broadcasted on MLBNetwork this morning.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
My Potential Line-Up
There’s not much to write about at the moment based off Red Sox news, so I thought I would comprise what my “dream” potential line-up would be based off the current 40- man roster. Granted, a lot can change ones Spring Training really kicks into gear, and there could still be some moves made (*cough* Epstein compensation, Oswalt). But, it’s always fun to “play manager.”
Line-Up:
1) Ellsbury CF
2) Pedroia 2B
3) Gonzalez 1B
4) Ortiz DH
5) Youkilis 3B
6) Saltalamacchia C
7) McDonald LF
8) Ross RF
9) Aviles SS
Obviously, a lot can and will change between now and Opening Day. Crawford is said to miss the start of the season after wrist surgery, so he’ll eventually take over Left-Field duties again. Punto could show that he’s a better Shortstop than Aviles, so those two could be switched out. Ryan Sweeney could have more pop in his bat and be the starting Left or Right Fielder. Eventually, I could see the line-up looking more like this:
1) Ellsbury CF
2) Pedoria 2B
3) Crawford LF
4) Gonzalez 1B
5) Ortiz DH
6) Youkilis 3B
7) Saltalamacchia C
8) Ross/Sweeney RF
9) Aviles/Punto SS
I do think Crawford will have a bounce-back year, and I think he’d be good in the number three hole. If Crawford has the numbers he had in Tampa Bay, having him, Pedroia, and Ellsbury running the bases ahead of Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Youkilis is going to be very entertaining. If, for some reason Crawford has another dismal year, he would move down to the number seven or nine holes, depending on how he’s running the bases (sorry, fifteen stolen bases like last year won’t cut it again).
I’ve heard a lot of predictions that Gonzalez is going to be even better than last year, and I believe this to be true. He’ll be more comfortable on the new team, and he’ll be seen in more of a leader role. It appears that Varitek and Wakefield won’t be coming back, so other players are going to be needing to step up in those leadership roles. Gonzalez will do this. Other leaders like Pedroia and Ortiz will continue to be a positive influence on the team as well.
The 2012 40-Man Roster is still very fluid, so much can change from stand-out prospects to trades to free-agent signings. It’s a little strange going into Spring Training with so many question marks with the team, but it’s also really exciting to see what’s going to happen.
Line-Up:
1) Ellsbury CF
2) Pedroia 2B
3) Gonzalez 1B
4) Ortiz DH
5) Youkilis 3B
6) Saltalamacchia C
7) McDonald LF
8) Ross RF
9) Aviles SS
Obviously, a lot can and will change between now and Opening Day. Crawford is said to miss the start of the season after wrist surgery, so he’ll eventually take over Left-Field duties again. Punto could show that he’s a better Shortstop than Aviles, so those two could be switched out. Ryan Sweeney could have more pop in his bat and be the starting Left or Right Fielder. Eventually, I could see the line-up looking more like this:
1) Ellsbury CF
2) Pedoria 2B
3) Crawford LF
4) Gonzalez 1B
5) Ortiz DH
6) Youkilis 3B
7) Saltalamacchia C
8) Ross/Sweeney RF
9) Aviles/Punto SS
I do think Crawford will have a bounce-back year, and I think he’d be good in the number three hole. If Crawford has the numbers he had in Tampa Bay, having him, Pedroia, and Ellsbury running the bases ahead of Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Youkilis is going to be very entertaining. If, for some reason Crawford has another dismal year, he would move down to the number seven or nine holes, depending on how he’s running the bases (sorry, fifteen stolen bases like last year won’t cut it again).
I’ve heard a lot of predictions that Gonzalez is going to be even better than last year, and I believe this to be true. He’ll be more comfortable on the new team, and he’ll be seen in more of a leader role. It appears that Varitek and Wakefield won’t be coming back, so other players are going to be needing to step up in those leadership roles. Gonzalez will do this. Other leaders like Pedroia and Ortiz will continue to be a positive influence on the team as well.
The 2012 40-Man Roster is still very fluid, so much can change from stand-out prospects to trades to free-agent signings. It’s a little strange going into Spring Training with so many question marks with the team, but it’s also really exciting to see what’s going to happen.
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