Opening Day Eve

Tomorrow is Opening Day, but the Cardinals at Marlins game is tonight. Last week, the A’s and Mariners played two official games in Japan. No wonder I haven’t been able to find a dependable Opening Day clock on the internet. One of my co-workers, a Cardinals fan, asked me today what the countdown was for the game tonight, and I couldnt find anything. Can’t use real math either.

Anyway, Opening Day for the Red Sox is tomorrow in Detroit. Verlander v. Lester. Games starts at noon, Central time. I am taking a half-day of work tomorrow just so I can enjoy the first game of the 2012 season.

However, I can’t help but be a little concerned about what the Sox chances are this year. I’m trying to be optimistic, but I’m not really sure what this team is capable. They seem like a team hungry to prove all the critics wrong, but I’m not sure, and it pains me to say it, they have the talent this year. The AL East has four legitimate contenders in the same division in the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays (FYI- the Orioles lost to a college team today.  Even if they weren't playing MLB-caliber players, what does that say about the orgainziation?). If the Sox were in any other division, I would say they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but in the AL East, it’s hard to say.

Last year was so disappointing from having the 100-win season predictions staring in December to overcoming the horrible Aprilto being the best team in baseball most of the summer to the historical collapse in September. As a fan, those emotions take a lot out of you, and I can only imagine what it feels like as a player, manager, coach, etc. of that team. This year, there seems to be so many question marks floating around that it’s hard to really grasp what the Red Sox really look like.

I know the Opening Day roster doesn’t mean a whole lot in the great scheme of things, but I thought I’d show what the Sox will look like when they take the field tomorrow:

Lineup:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Sweeney RF
Ross LF
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles SS

SP: Lester
Relievers: Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Padilla, Atchinson, Thomas, Albers, Bowden

Bench: McDonald, Punto, Shoppach
Other Starters: Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard

There are 13 pitchers on this roster, and I don’t see that staying around very long. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal roster either, since Crawford and Bailey are on the DL. Crawford is said to be coming back in May, but Bailey will be out at least 3-4 months. Valentine said today that Aceves will be in the closer role tomorrow, and will be looked at as a closer if he’s not available, then Melancon will be the closer.

I had a quick discussion with one of my fellow Red Sox friends yesterday about being a little frightened for this season. Here are some the things we touched on:

* The starting pitching really hinges on Buchholz- Lester and Beckett will hopefully continue their dominance from last year and Spring Training, and Doubront and Bard are both rookies in starting roles in the Majors. Buchholz needs stay healthy and pitch like people know he can pitch- All-Star-caliber. If one of the starts goes down, then I feel comfortable with putting Aceves in that role or calling up Cook. Matsuzaka will be coming back at some point in the first half of the season too. But, Buchholz is the key.

* The right side of the infield (Gonzalez and Pedroia) is one of the best in the Majors, but the left side (Aviles and Youkilis) is a little shaky. If Youk stays healthy, I think third base will be fine, but shortstop has remained the black hole position (it’s been that way since No-mah). Yes, Aviles impressed me this Spring Training, and I think he’ll do well offensively. Defensively, I’d rather have Iglesias there. Maybe when Crawford comes back and starts hitting around .300 again, Iglesias will be given a shot.

* Cody Ross is going to be an electric personality for the Red Sox, and they should do everything in their power to show that. I saw one report where it said that Cody Ross makes Kevin Millar look like a wallflower. I never thought those words would be used in the same sentence. The Sox need to embrace Ross and show him off the public (not like a show dog though), like they do with Pedroia and Papi. People need to see the Sox in a good light rather than the light they saw them in September.

* The bullpen scares me, much as it does every year. I know the bullpen is a fluid role, pitchers come and go depending on whose hot and not, but looking at it right now doesn’t bring to mind many good thoughts. I’ve heard critics saying that Padilla will be a force and Melancon has the stuff of closers, but I’m not buying it. The past few years, we, as fans, could always think “if (enter starting pitchers name) can make it to the seventh or eighth inning, Bard will pitch the 8th and Pap the 9th.” Can’t say that now. Aside from Aceves, I don’t see a pitcher who can really strike fear into a batter. This, of course, can change as the year goes on. Rich Hill will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in
the next couple months, so there’s that to look forward to.

* The bench looks okay to me. McDonald’s always been one of those guys who can deliver an important hit… or pitch an inning if need be. Punto can play almost any position, but he’s a career .249 hitter (he did hit .278 in 66 games for the Cards last year though). Shoppach will be okay as a back-up, and he’ll probably be traded at some point this season to make room for Lavarnway. When Crawford comes back from the DL, Sweeny and Ross will make a nice platoon in right field.

The Red Sox are going to hit and score runs this season, there’s no way of doubting that. As always, pitching is the key. To really be the team to beat in the East, the Sox need to have their pitcher locked-in. I think Bob McClure has done a much better job as pitching coach this season that Curt Young did last year. The starters, Aceves, Cook, and maybe even Padilla all seem to have a fire in them; and hopefully, the bullpen will look that way as well.

I’ve seen the Red Sox predicted to end anywhere from first to fourth in the AL East this year. I don’t know if I can really predict where the Sox will land because there’s so much uncertainty with this team and with the other teams in the East. Are the Yankees too old and have too many pitching problems (Pineda and Joba are out for some time)? Do the Rays have enough offense to help their pitching? Will the Blue Jays stay around all season or fade at the end? The Orioles… maybe next year.

So, if I had to make a bold prediction, I’ll say the Red Sox finish first, by a game or two ahead of the Yankees because the Yankees will find money/trade chips to acquire what they need. The Sox’s pitching will fall into place around May/June with the additions of Hill and Matsuzaka. Aaron Cook will be traded for bullpen help.

Here are my 2012 predictions:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Yankees, Angels
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcards: Braves, Cardinals
ALCS: Rangers over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
World Series: Rangers over Phillies

Here’s hoping for a great Red Sox 2012 season!