And the Red Sox Lose Again

The Red Sox lost to the Giants last night 3-2.  With the score tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 9th inning, here's how the rest of the inning played out with Franklin Morales pitching:

Brandon Crawford strikes out swinging (1 Out)

Roger Kieschnick singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (Runner on 1st Base)

Joaquin Arias lines out to center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (2 Outs, Runner on 1st Base)

Offensive substitution: Pinch-hitter Andres Torres replaces Sergio Romo.

Andres Torres walks.  Roger Kieschnick to 2nd (Runners on 1st and 2nd Bases)

Offensive substitution: Pinch-hitter Hector Sanchez replaces Gregor Blanco.

Hector Sanchez hit by pitch.  Roger Kieschnick to 3rd.  Andres Torres to 2nd (Bases loaded)

Pitching change: Brayan Villarreal replaces Franklin Morale.

Marco Scutaro Walks.  Roger Kieschnick scores.  Andres Torres to 3rd.  Hector Sanchez to 2nd.

In summary, the Red Sox lost because of poor pitching (2 walks, 1 hit batter).  With the game on the line, John Farrell put in two pitchers (Franklin Moarales and Brayan Villarreal) who have been in Triple-A until this week because they've been on the disabled list.  To make matters worse, Junichi Tazawa gave up 2 singles and a sac fly in the bottom of the 8th inning to tie the game.

I haven't question Farrell very much (if at all) this season, but I have to question his use of Tazawa (who hasn't been very effective lately), Morales, and Villarreal in a such a crucial situation.  The Rays had already won their game last night, so the Red Sox knew they had to win this game in order to hold onto first place alone.  Why not use Koji Uehara for at least the 9th inning? 

Because they lost, the Red Sox and Rays are tied for first.  Actually, the Rays are points ahead of the Red Sox because the Rays have played less games than the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have not won consecutive games since August 6th-7th agains the Astros.  They have gone 4-8 since that mark.  Something needs to change.  I thought they were going to get back to their winning ways when the won the first game against the Giants handily (Lester pitching 8.1 innings like a master).  Not the case.

Pedroia is now hitting .290 for the season; and I believe his average since the All-Star Break is something like .210.  Xander Bogaerts was called up before Monday night's game and made his debut last night.  He went 0-for-3, left 5 men on, and was pulled in the bottom of the 6th inning.  The once solid bullpen is showing signs of cracks and wear.  

What needs to happen?  The Red Sox need to win if they want to stay in first place.  They play the Giants today at 2:45 CT time today and have tomorrow off before the weekend series against the Dodgers.  Let's hope they start to win again.

Surprises and Disappointments

I touched on the topic of surprises and disappointments in an earlier post, but I thought I needed to address the topic again.  This season has been a bit schizophrenic thus far, with some players over-achieving, and others falling below their potential and what we've seen in the past.

Surprises

Clay Buchholz
I think Buchholz has been the biggest surprise of the team so far.  He's 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA.  His WHIP is standing at 1.036, and he's been really impressive in his starts.  Even his last couple starts, where he's gotten no decisions, he's only giving up 2-3 runs.  This Red Sox team SHOULD be able to score enough runs in Buchholz's starts to win ballgames.  He's also averaging 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Bullpen

Honestly, I couldn’t pick just one reliever to be the surprise.  I knew the bullpen would be better than last year (I don’t know if they could’ve done much worse), but I didn’t know it’s be this good.  Granted, I’m only considering the relievers who are still in the bullpen (not Bard, Hanrahan, Webster, Wright, or De La Torre who all have ERAs of at least 9.00).  Miller (3.77) and Mortensen (3.68) have the highest ERAs, and Breslow (1.17) has the lowest.  Bailey’s WHIP is at0.811.  

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Last year, when Salty his .222 with 25 home runs and 59 RBIs, the Sox and fans were satisfied with those totals.  Sure, it wasn’t the greatest stats to have, but a catcher has a lot more responsibility than offense.  He’s calling the games for the pitchers.  This year, Salty is hitting .265 with 5 home runs and 13 RBIs.  Yes, the power has gone down slightly, but his average has gone up.  He’s making more contact.  In less than a quarter of a season, Salty has a third of the hits (30) he had all of last year (90).  Plus, the pitching is a vast improvement this year compared to last year, which means Salty’s calling a better game.

David Ortiz

In 27 games this season, Ortiz his hitting .349 with 7 home runs, 9 doubles, and 29 RBIs.  The only person who has more RBIs than Ortiz is Napoli, who has 35 in 45 games.  His on base percentage is at .397.  By comparison, Ellsbury’s is at .307, and he’s the leadoff batter.

Disappointments

Jacoby Ellsbury

As already stated (in this post and others), Ellsbury is not getting on base.  He has a .307 OBP and is only batting .242.  While his defense has been great, his offense is greatly diminished.  Ellsbury’s power is down as well.  He only has 1 home run this season.  The only other player currently on the roster to only have 1 home run, and is not a pitcher, is Pedro Ciriaco.

Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan is injured beyond repair and will not play another game for the Red Sox this season… and maybe ever again; his contract is up at the end of the year.  He had Tommy John and flexor muscle repair surgery last week, and won’t pitch again for 12-15 months, at least.  I call Hanrahan a disappointment in the sense that he never really got to try and pitch for the Sox.  He was injured, which is disappointing (see what I did there?).  He’s an Iowa guy though, and he’s tough.  He’ll be back, just don’t know with what team and when.

Will Middlebrooks

Yes, Middlebrooks is hitting better lately, but he’s still only batting .208 for the season.  After the 3-home run massacre he gave the Blue Jays back in April, he’s faltered heavily.  He has 50 strikeouts, compared to 7 walks, this season.  He does have 20 RBIs for the season, and 8 home runs.  Hopefully, he comes out of this slump… fast.

Daniel Bard

Daniel Bard made two appearances for the Red Sox this season, because he was the only pitcher available on the 40-man roster.  He pitched 1.0 inning, walked 2, gave up 1 hit, 1 earned run, and has a 9.0 ERA.  He was sent back to Double-A, where he’s spent most of the season.  Things are so bad in Double-A for Bard (12.2 IP, 13 hits, 11 runs, 9 earned runs, 1 home run, 17 walks, 6 strikeouts, 6.39 ERA, and 2.368 WHIP), that he’s been shut down since May 15th.

The Red Sox Win Their First Back-To-Back Road Games Since August 2011

It pangs me a little to even write that headline. The last time the Red Sox won consecutive road games was August 23rd-25th, 2001 against the Texas Rangers. That seems like a lifetime ago.

I usually don’t like to express team stats as they go into the previous season, but I had to throw that one out. For some reason, it seems like someone has been playing with a Voodoo doll in the likes of the Red Sox team. They couldn’t catch a break… until now possibly.

I’m convinced that the Red Sox need to work as a team, rather than having a few players carry them. This should seem logical for baseball, but it’s not always the case. So many times, it seems like the Red Sox rely on a player to remain clutch (last year, it seemed like Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez were those players, the year before, Adrian Beltre). Of course, Pedroia and Ortiz are just asked to be consistent… consistently productive.

Again, last night’s game looked like a legitimate team effort, much like the game before. Here’s a look at the Red Sox’s portion of the Boxscore:

All of the starters had at least one hit, besides Cody Ross who at least had an RBI. Aviles hit 4-5 in the lead-off spot, including two doubles and a home run. Ortiz went 2-4 with a home run and 3 RBIs. Youkilis and Byrd, the two players who offense every fan wished would start to pick up, each had two hits.

I admit, I thought things were going to get a little shaky for Beckett in the first inning. He walked in a runner, after all. But, Beckett strapped down, and went six innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, and striking out 5, and didn’t give up a home run. His ERA is 4.56, which is steadily getting lower.

The thing I think so many people need to realize with Beckett is it seems like he always has the one game early on in the season when he’s just not locked in. He’ll give up those runs, but he fights back. I don’t know if people think of him as the pitcher with the bad attitude who seems like it doesn’t care or what, but I’ve always admired Beckett when he pitches. He’s out there to win, and people can tell when watching him.

The relievers last night, Atchison and Albers, also did well. Atchison went 2 innings and gave up no hits while striking out 3. His ERA is now 1.54. Who would’ve thought that Atchison would be one of most dependable relievers this season (to this point, at least)? Albers also did well in one inning, only giving up a hit and no runs. His ERA is a respectable 3.38 in this early part of the season.
Here’s some things to ponder:

* Ortiz is batting .444 at this point of the season, and it seems like he’s heating up even more. In the past seven games, he’s hitting .550 (11/20) with 2 home runs, 2 doubles, 5 RBIs, and 2 walks. He had his fourth-straight multi-hit game and has 28 hits this season, the most he has ever had in April (he had 21 in 1998 and 2001).

* Mike Aviles seems to be a suitable lead-off hitter. So far this season, he’s hitting .333 with a .932 OPS. I hate to say it so soon, but maybe after Ellsbury returns, Aviles stays as the lead-off? Move Pedroia to 2nd, Ellsbury to 3rd, and so on. Also, makes you want to say Marco who, right?

* Technically, the Red Sox are only three games back in their league in the loss column.  The other teams are 10-7.

* Carl Crawford is scheduled to have his elbow examined by Dr. James Andrews... hopefully for reassurance, but you can never be so certain when it comes to Red Sox injuries.

* Rich Hill could possibly be promoted to the Red Sox bullpen this weekend. He pitched a scoreless inning last night for Pawtucket and is scheduled to pitch again tonight. If he does well on back-to-back games, he should be ready to go.

* Also wanted to note that I checked my stats on the blog today, and it was viewed 19 times in one hour yesterday. Whoever is reading the blog, I just wanted to say thank you.

Here’s hoping the Red Sox can keep on this encouraging path!

That Was Gruesome

I admit, I stopped watching the game last night intently in the third inning. I stopped watching it all together after 7:30. I stopped keeping track of the score after 8:30. That was probably one of the worst games I have witnessed. The Red Sox lost 18-3 to the Texas Rangers.

It started off well for the Red Sox. Lester did pretty well in the first inning, not giving up any runs, and then Pedroia’s two-run home run in the bottom of the inning was a nice start. It was the first time in the season that the Sox had scored in the first inning. I was thinking this was a good start, and Lester was finally going to get the run support he deserved. I was wrong. I was very wrong.

Lester gave up four runs in the second inning and three runs in the third. Lester pitched a total of 80 pitches, 43 pitches in the second inning alone. He left in the third inning without getting an out. It was Lester’s second worst outing in his career, and I’m hoping it was a fluke.

For the past three seasons, Lester has been one of the predicted pitchers to win the AL Cy Young Award. Lester’s a great pitcher, make no mistake about that. While watching him last night, I couldn’t help but think that he had something physically wrong with him. I’m not sure what it was, but something seemed off with the way he was throwing the ball. Hopefully, he doesn’t land on the DL.

The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t any better, except Atchison (4 innings pitched, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts, 1 home run) and Albers (1 inning pitched and 0s down the board). Atchison has pitched surprisingly efficient throughout the young season, and I’m hoping he continues this way.

Atchison’s story of how he became on the Red Sox is a great one. If you don’t already know about Atchison’s daughter, please read this article: http://articles.boston.com/2010-03-07/sports/29326373_1_callie-rare-genetic-disorder-red-sox. In short, Atchison’s daughter has a rare genetic disorder known as thrombocytopenia-absent radius (TAR), in which the bone from the elbow to the thumb is missing in both of his daughter’s arms.

It’s heart-breaking to hear about the struggles of a three-year-old, but it’s great to see Atchison performing well and his daughter being able to see that. But back to the game, the rest of the bullpen pitched about as horrendously as Lester…
Melancon probably more horrendously. Melancon didn’t record an out in the eighth inning, but still managed to give up 6 runs on 4 hits, including 3 home runs. For the record, Melancon’s ERA for the season is 49.50.

Melancon has to go, whether it’s to Triple-A, released, by waivers, or traded. He’s doing far more harm than good for this team. To think, this was supposed to be the pitcher to replace Bard as our set-up man. I’m just thankful Valentine didn’t award him the closer’s position when Bailey went down. I’m praying Bailey returns ahead of schedule.

The two pitchers who came in after Melancon did slightly better: Thomas and Padilla both pitched an inning and gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. On Twitter, there were messages about Thomas going into the role he was supposed to pitch in: mop-up. I think both Thomas and Padilla have done a pretty good job pitching thus far, but the bad luck was going all around the Red Sox pitching staff last night.

Rich Hill can not come back soon enough. I guess you can say the same thing about Matsuzaka and Andrew Miller at this point too. If Aaron Cook could make a difference in the bullpen, he’d be welcomed as well. Every little bit would help.

UPDATE:  Melancon has been sent to Triple-A, and Junichi Tazawa was recalled.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Red Sox are on a three-game winning streak heading into to their early (10:05 Central time) game for Patriots Day. Instead of recapping the three games, I thought I would give a few observations and tidbits from what transpired this weekend:

The Good

* The Red Sox are winning, so that’s the main good thing to come out of this weekend.

* Josh Beckett found his groove again. For Fridays game, he went 8 innings pitched, giving up 1 run on 5 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 1.

* The Red Sox owned Tampa Bay in the 8th inning. On Friday, they scored 8 runs, and on Saturday, the scored 5 runs

* The offense really started coming around these three games:

Gonzalez: 5/13 with a double and an RBI

Youkilis: 4/10 with 3 RBIs
Ortiz: 9/13 with a home run, 4 doubles, and 8 RBIs
Ross: 3/10 with 2 home runs, a double and 8 RBIs
Aviles: 5/13 with 2 home runs, a double, and 2 RBIs
Shoppach: 4/7 with 3 doubles, 3 RBIs, and a stolen base (his first attempt in the Majors… ever. It was nic-named “The Stop, Shop, and Roll” on Twitter).

* The bullpen was great (minus Melancon on Friday who gave up a home run):

Morales: 1 IP, 0 hits, 0 BBs, 1K

Atchinson: 1/3 IP, 1 hit, 1 BB, 1K

Padilla: 1 2/3 IP, 1 hit, 0 BBs, 2Ks
Aceves: 2 IP, 0 hits, 0 BBs, 3Ks

 The Bad

* For some reason, Valentine is not playing Sweeney, who, if memory serves me, has not gone a game he’s played without a hit. In the two games he played this weekend, he went 2/7 with 2RBIs.

* As much as I like McDonald, he’s cooled way off since Spring Training. This weekend, he was 1/9 with a double. With Ellsbury out (more on that in The Ugly section), I’m sure we’ll be seeing much more of McDonald.

* While Beckett seemed to have found his groove, Buchholz and Doubront still have some work to do:

Buchholz on Saturday: 7 IP, 6 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, and 5 strikeouts. (Also worth noting, that while I wasn’t able to watch most of this game, I did check the score in the 3rd inning. It was 5-0 Rays. Luckily for Buchholz, the offense clicked later in the game.)

Doubront on Sunday: 5 IP, 9 hits, 4 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts (Doubront did great until the 5th inning, when he gave up all 4 runs).

 The Ugly

* The Red Sox will be without Ellsbury an estimated 6-8 weeks because he has a subluxed right shoulder. A shoulder subluxation is when the shoulder doesn’t completely become dislocated. I wrote briefly about how the injury occurred on Friday. The word “surgery” hasn’t appeared associated to Ellsbury’s name as of yet, and it could just require rest and rehabbing.

* Valentine is causing controversy with Youkilis. Valentine made the following comment to WHDH’s Sports Xtra show Sunday night:

I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game as he has been in the past for some reason. But [on Saturday] it seemed, you know, he's seeing the ball well, got those two walks, got his on-base percentage up higher than his batting average, which is always a good thing, and he'll move on from there.

When Youkilis was asked about the comments this morning, he replied with:

I’m more confused than anything because everyone knows I go out and play the game as hard as I can. It’s just my style of play. I was never blessed with the raw tools and I’ve always had to use playing the game hard and with full effort my whole life.

Valentine stated that he met with Youkilis and offered him a clarification and an apology. For what it’s worth, Youkilis was not in the line-up today for what Valentine called a “groin injury.” When asked about the clarification and apology, Valentine stated:

Kevin came in this morning and I thought it was about his groin. I thought he was going to tell me how his groin was, and I said, `Hey, how’s the groin?’ and he said, 'Well, all right, but what’s going on?'

When he told me that people called him and told him that I said things that he didn’t like, I totally apologized. I said the last thing in the world I want you to think is that I'm doing anything to criticize you. I was giving an answer to a question and I should've been more specific and said your physical was about your swing and your emotional was not being happy when you don't hit a ball off the wall.

I don't know if he accepted my apology, but it was very sincere. The last thing in the world is that I didn't want him to think that this was anything but an answer to a question that seemed to be jabbing at him. I was just trying to smooth it over and I guess that I didn't.

I’m not sure how I want to read into this. I want to think that everything’s going great with the new manager, but it just may not be that way. Pedroia said it best, I think:

I don't know what Bobby's trying to do, but that's not the way we do things here. Maybe that stuff works in Japan.

Ugly indeed.

Should Bard be a Reliever?

Daniel Bard has yet to throw a pitch as a starter this season, but there’s a lot of talk about him being sent back to the bullpen. The sad thing is that this talk is because of the lack of reliability in the bullpen, not because Bard can’t handle it at a starter. As Pete Abraham tweeted yesterday, “Daniel Bard could be the first guy to lose his job as a starter without throwing a pitch.”

Yesterday’s 13-12 loss in 11 innings was ugly, no other way of looking at it. The Sox climbed out of a 4-0 deficit early in the game, and there offense looked like it was starting to come around. This game was not loss because of the offense; I have to stress that. This game was loss because of the bullpen (and some can argue the same thing about Thursday’s 3-2 loss as well). Our bullpen is in shambles, and we’re three games into the season.

First, I have to stress that only 1.8% of the season has gone by; so obviously, there’s plenty of time to right the ship. Lucchino has said he wants to expand the payroll (for a starter or relief help), Miller and Hill are making rehab starts, and Aaron Cook is still waiting in Triple-A. Okay, the positives are out of the way; time to gt on the pitching’s case.

Lester did great job pitching Thursday giving up only one run in 7 innings, so I won’t even address that. There have been a couple bright spots in the bullpen as well- Vincent Padilla was one yesterday. After giving up a run in a third of an inning on Thursday, Padilla went 4 innings yesterday without giving up a run and only 2 hits. Franklin Morales also was impressive coming in relief yesterday. Over 2 innings, he gave up no runs, 1 hit, and had 3 strikeouts.

Every other pitcher on this team has been horrible. In the game yesterday, the Aceves and Melancon each had a blown save! Melancon already has an 0-2 record, and they’ve only played three games! In one total innings pitched, Melancon has a 36.00 ERA, has given up five hits, four runs, and one home run (being the walk-off from yesterday). Aceves has yet to record an out, but he has allowed three runs on four hits. I don’t know how it could be any uglier than that.

Granted, our starting pitching hasn’t helped much over Saturday and Sunday. Josh Beckett only lasted 4.2 innings, giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs. Buchholz didn’t give up any home runs, but still managed to only pitch 4 innings and give up 7 runs on 8 hits. Beckett and Buchholz need to get the spider webs/nerves shaken off; they need to pitch better. Period.

Beckett, Buchholz, Melancon, and Aceves are all supposed to be important parts to not only our pitching staff but to our team as a whole. They’re not those pitchers you can slide in and out of the Major League roster without making a difference. They all need to pitch better, but especially our bullpen. The Red Sox should have won yesterday; there’s no way around it. They had a three-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th when Melancon gave up the 3-run homer to Miguel Cabrera to send the game to extra-innings.

The Sox had a two-run lead in bottom of the 11th when Melancon blew that lead and eventually made the team lost on a walk-off, two-run homer from Alex Avila. Detroit is a good team, probably one of the top three teams in the Majors, so kudos to them. But, the Sox need to play better; they need to pitch better. This brings me back to Bard. When Valentine was asked yesterday after the game “Is Bard an option?” his reply was “Might be.”

I was all for letting Bard be a starter and keeping him there, since it’s a position that takes a bit of getting used to, but I’m not sure how much more the Sox can take with these relievers. Valentine may be right in saying that Bard might be the only option the Sox have left. Bard needs to stop the bleeding, either as a reliever or as a starter (by pitching a complete game shut-out, if that’s the way it needs to be).

The Red Sox management needs to make some decisions. They need pitching help, and they need it now. Either make a trade (Lannan wants out of Washington), move some players (Cook moved up as a starter, Bard to bullpen), or create an injury to make a pitcher have a time-out (preferably Melancon, since I’m thinking his nerves are getting in the way). Something needs to be done, and it needs to be done now. The Sox starter 2-10 last year; let’s not have a repeat.

A Few Observations From Opening Day

The Red Sox lost to the Tigers in their first game, 3-2.  It would've been 2-0 Tigers if it wasn't for the Red Sox rallying in the 9th.  Both Lester and Verlander looked great, but neither factored into a decision.  Here's some observations from the first official game of the Red Sox's 2012 season:

* The bullpen may be worse than I thought.  Padilla started the bottom of the 8th by giving up a triple to Austin Jackson, and with one out, intentionally walked Fielder.  Morales came in gave up a short flyball to Center which Ellsbury botched the throw to home plate.  In the bottom of the 9th, Melancon gave up two singles in a row, and Valentine put in Aceves.  Aceves hit the next batter to load the bases and gave up a game-winning single to Santiago, costing the game.

* Lester was great.  His line: 7 IP 6H 1R 1ER 3BB 4K 0HR  107 pitches, 63 for strikes.  That's the way to start the season!  I do think Valentine may have kept in a bit too long, but I can't complain with that performance. 

* The Sox offense just wasn't firing, but they were also going against Verlander ("Cy Young, MVP!").  Verlander went 8 innings and only gave up 2 hits while striking out 7.  Ortiz and Pedroia both had doubles, and Sweeney had a game-tying triple in the 9th.  Sweeney was the only player to have more than one hit on the Sox, going 2-4.  Youkilis struck out twice.

* Was it just me, or did Francona sound like he wishes he was still on the team?  He had a sort of longing in his voice, and I could tell he missed being with the team.  He made one comment about Pedroia knowing what's going on at all times.  He said, "He (Pedroia) can hold the runner on second and waive to us up here."  Francona, we miss you too.

That's all I have for now.  I'm hoping the game of Saturday goes better for the Sox.  Beckett v. Fister.  Let's go Sox!

Opening Day Eve

Tomorrow is Opening Day, but the Cardinals at Marlins game is tonight. Last week, the A’s and Mariners played two official games in Japan. No wonder I haven’t been able to find a dependable Opening Day clock on the internet. One of my co-workers, a Cardinals fan, asked me today what the countdown was for the game tonight, and I couldnt find anything. Can’t use real math either.

Anyway, Opening Day for the Red Sox is tomorrow in Detroit. Verlander v. Lester. Games starts at noon, Central time. I am taking a half-day of work tomorrow just so I can enjoy the first game of the 2012 season.

However, I can’t help but be a little concerned about what the Sox chances are this year. I’m trying to be optimistic, but I’m not really sure what this team is capable. They seem like a team hungry to prove all the critics wrong, but I’m not sure, and it pains me to say it, they have the talent this year. The AL East has four legitimate contenders in the same division in the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays (FYI- the Orioles lost to a college team today.  Even if they weren't playing MLB-caliber players, what does that say about the orgainziation?). If the Sox were in any other division, I would say they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but in the AL East, it’s hard to say.

Last year was so disappointing from having the 100-win season predictions staring in December to overcoming the horrible Aprilto being the best team in baseball most of the summer to the historical collapse in September. As a fan, those emotions take a lot out of you, and I can only imagine what it feels like as a player, manager, coach, etc. of that team. This year, there seems to be so many question marks floating around that it’s hard to really grasp what the Red Sox really look like.

I know the Opening Day roster doesn’t mean a whole lot in the great scheme of things, but I thought I’d show what the Sox will look like when they take the field tomorrow:

Lineup:
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Sweeney RF
Ross LF
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles SS

SP: Lester
Relievers: Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Padilla, Atchinson, Thomas, Albers, Bowden

Bench: McDonald, Punto, Shoppach
Other Starters: Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard

There are 13 pitchers on this roster, and I don’t see that staying around very long. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal roster either, since Crawford and Bailey are on the DL. Crawford is said to be coming back in May, but Bailey will be out at least 3-4 months. Valentine said today that Aceves will be in the closer role tomorrow, and will be looked at as a closer if he’s not available, then Melancon will be the closer.

I had a quick discussion with one of my fellow Red Sox friends yesterday about being a little frightened for this season. Here are some the things we touched on:

* The starting pitching really hinges on Buchholz- Lester and Beckett will hopefully continue their dominance from last year and Spring Training, and Doubront and Bard are both rookies in starting roles in the Majors. Buchholz needs stay healthy and pitch like people know he can pitch- All-Star-caliber. If one of the starts goes down, then I feel comfortable with putting Aceves in that role or calling up Cook. Matsuzaka will be coming back at some point in the first half of the season too. But, Buchholz is the key.

* The right side of the infield (Gonzalez and Pedroia) is one of the best in the Majors, but the left side (Aviles and Youkilis) is a little shaky. If Youk stays healthy, I think third base will be fine, but shortstop has remained the black hole position (it’s been that way since No-mah). Yes, Aviles impressed me this Spring Training, and I think he’ll do well offensively. Defensively, I’d rather have Iglesias there. Maybe when Crawford comes back and starts hitting around .300 again, Iglesias will be given a shot.

* Cody Ross is going to be an electric personality for the Red Sox, and they should do everything in their power to show that. I saw one report where it said that Cody Ross makes Kevin Millar look like a wallflower. I never thought those words would be used in the same sentence. The Sox need to embrace Ross and show him off the public (not like a show dog though), like they do with Pedroia and Papi. People need to see the Sox in a good light rather than the light they saw them in September.

* The bullpen scares me, much as it does every year. I know the bullpen is a fluid role, pitchers come and go depending on whose hot and not, but looking at it right now doesn’t bring to mind many good thoughts. I’ve heard critics saying that Padilla will be a force and Melancon has the stuff of closers, but I’m not buying it. The past few years, we, as fans, could always think “if (enter starting pitchers name) can make it to the seventh or eighth inning, Bard will pitch the 8th and Pap the 9th.” Can’t say that now. Aside from Aceves, I don’t see a pitcher who can really strike fear into a batter. This, of course, can change as the year goes on. Rich Hill will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in
the next couple months, so there’s that to look forward to.

* The bench looks okay to me. McDonald’s always been one of those guys who can deliver an important hit… or pitch an inning if need be. Punto can play almost any position, but he’s a career .249 hitter (he did hit .278 in 66 games for the Cards last year though). Shoppach will be okay as a back-up, and he’ll probably be traded at some point this season to make room for Lavarnway. When Crawford comes back from the DL, Sweeny and Ross will make a nice platoon in right field.

The Red Sox are going to hit and score runs this season, there’s no way of doubting that. As always, pitching is the key. To really be the team to beat in the East, the Sox need to have their pitcher locked-in. I think Bob McClure has done a much better job as pitching coach this season that Curt Young did last year. The starters, Aceves, Cook, and maybe even Padilla all seem to have a fire in them; and hopefully, the bullpen will look that way as well.

I’ve seen the Red Sox predicted to end anywhere from first to fourth in the AL East this year. I don’t know if I can really predict where the Sox will land because there’s so much uncertainty with this team and with the other teams in the East. Are the Yankees too old and have too many pitching problems (Pineda and Joba are out for some time)? Do the Rays have enough offense to help their pitching? Will the Blue Jays stay around all season or fade at the end? The Orioles… maybe next year.

So, if I had to make a bold prediction, I’ll say the Red Sox finish first, by a game or two ahead of the Yankees because the Yankees will find money/trade chips to acquire what they need. The Sox’s pitching will fall into place around May/June with the additions of Hill and Matsuzaka. Aaron Cook will be traded for bullpen help.

Here are my 2012 predictions:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcards: Yankees, Angels
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcards: Braves, Cardinals
ALCS: Rangers over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
World Series: Rangers over Phillies

Here’s hoping for a great Red Sox 2012 season!

Thumb Wars

I’ve been trying to remain optimistic about the upcoming season (two days until the Sox take on the Tigers). Through Bard’s rough Spring Training starts, Crawford’s setbacks, the lack of bullpen help, I’ve tried to think that this Red Sox team will be able to come out on top. However, the news from yesterday and today is just another blow to a Red Sox team with so going against them.

It was reported yesterday that Andrew Bailey had seen a thumb specialist in Boston and was now seeing hand specialist one in Cleveland. ESPN is reporting that Bailey needs surgery on his thumb, and the surgery could be done as early as this afternoon. Nothing official has come from the Red Sox as of yet, but it’s really only a matter of time, right?

Also reported yesterday was that Josh Beckett had a thumb issue as well. Yesterday, Beckett saw a thumb specialist in San Antonio; and now, there are reports that Beckett’s also heading to Cleveland to have his thumb looked at by the specialist. However, Beckett’s visit is supposed to be for “peace of mind,” according to Valentine.

If both pitchers are down for some time, I think the Sox are in trouble. Bailey’s injury seems to be more troublesome since the word “surgery” is being associated with it. If Bailey is out for some time, and the reports are that he’s going on the disabled list, then the Sox will need to figure out who will close the games.

Melancon, who was slated to be the set-up man, seems to be a logical choice; he was the closer for the Astros last year as well. But closing for the Astros is completely different than closing for the Red Sox, in a year when they’re out to prove themselves. Based off what I’ve seen from him during Spring Training, I’m not convinced that Melancon would be the best decision for a closer.

Aceves is also a candidate for the closing position. In my opinion, Aceves is the most versatile pitcher the Sox have, which also seems to be his Achilles tendon when it comes to him being a starter. He may not have lights out stuff, which seems to be what people look for in closers, but he knows how to pitch and pitch well. Personally, I think Aceves is the best choice for closer because he is out to prove something.

There’s also the idea of having Aceves become a starter and Bard fill in as closer, since Bard has been the “closer in waiting” for so long. As angry as Aceves was when he was told he wouldn’t be a starter, I think Daniel Bard would be even more so. I’ve seen the “Bard as closer” idea bounced around since these thumb reports have come out, and I think that’ll be too disruptive. If the Sox are committed to Bard being a starter, they can’t change their minds because of Bailey’s injury.

Beckett’s injury also is a concern, but maybe to a lesser extent. Beckett reportedly had thrown 100 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday and “felt great,” according to Valentine. Valentine is also quoted as saying, “If he needed to talk to me, he was going to talk to me. He didn’t talk to me, so I think he was fine.”

Again, Aceves seems like the logical choice to fill in as a starter if Beckett does have to miss starts or be placed on the disabled list. Besides one start, he’s had a great Spring Training. He wants to be a starter; and according to him, Valentine has already told him if Beckett can’t start, Aceves is the starter.

I’m really hoping that Beckett’s visit to the hand specialist is just precautionary because he’s one of the keys to the Sox’s success this season. He’s out to prove something, and he’s done a great job this Spring Training (19 innings, 7 hits, 2 ER). If the Sox lost Beckett, that’ll be a blow to the rotation.

I’m sure they’ll be more reports and confirmations later today, but I had to write something about this now. It’s frustrating to have so much faith in a team that seems to be crumbling away before the season starts. The season is 162 games (as ESPN so graciously reminded me last night in their documentary). A lot can happen in that time; I just hope it ends up being positive.

UPDATE:  Andrew Bailey is scheduled to have surgery to reconstruct ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb.  When Valentine was asked when Bailey was to return, his reply was he wasn't expecting him back before the All-Star Break.  So, the Sox need a closer... fast.  The season starts in less than 48 hours....