2013 Predictions

The American League East has been called the “Beasts in the East” for years. The Red Sox and Yankees dominated the division for years, then the Tampa Bay Rays started to come on strong, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays always being competitive. Last year, the Orioles had their time to shine. This year, it’s anyone’s guess who the will take the division.

Last year, the Orioles surprised everyone by making it to the ALDS. This year, the Jays have obtained an arsenal of players via free agency and trade (R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, John Buck). The Yankees are hurting at the moment (Jeter, Texeira, and Rodriguez are or will be on the disabled list at the beginning of the season), but the Yankees always find a way to win. The Rays have pitching.

So, where will the Red Sox end up this season? Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. I can make some arguments that the Sox will win the division (players have comeback/breakout years, good trades, nice free agent pickups, etc.), and I can make the argument that they will come in last place again (if the injury bug continues to be a problem for the third season in a row, pitching falters again, big names go down, etc.). I do believe the AL East will beat up on each other, and the race will be a tight one.

But, you came here wanting to hear my predictions, so let me entertain you:

Record
87-75 for 2nd Place

I think the Jays will win the division with about 91 wins, followed by the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, and Orioles. I don’t think many games will separate the bottom four teams, and I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox. The Sox could easily be anywhere in the 2nd-4th range, with only a handful of games separating the teams. If injuries don’t become a problem like they have in the past, this could easily be the surprise team of the year.

Lester and Buchholz will have good seasons
I know I said that about Lester last year, but Farrell’s going to make sure Lester is focused on his pitching. I think Lester will have the better ERA by the end of the season (somewhere around 3.00), but Buchholz will have the better record (between 17 and 20 wins). Both pitchers have to remain healthy for this team to have a shot. I’ve been notoriously hard on Buchholz in the past, but I think he’s going to have a breakout season.

Jackie Bradley Junior will spend the majority of his time at the Major League Level
I’ve said it before- the Sox can’t tuck JBJ in the minors when the team needs him. His bat is hot now, and with Ortiz starting the season on the disabled list, the Sox need someone like him in the lineup. He’s going to draw fans to games and to their televisions to see the new talent. He’s part of the future of this team (with Iglesias and Middlebrooks). If he does start to falter, he has the option of going back to Triple-A. But, I think the Sox will likely be sticking with JBJ in the outfield and Gomes as DH while Ortiz is out.

Pedroia will carry this team
He’s had injuries in 2010 (ankle) and 2012 (two, separate injuries to his thumb and a broken ring finger). Pedroia likes to prove people wrong, and he’s going to show all the critics that think he’s “injury prone” or a “fluke” that his ROY and MVP awards are not flukes. Pedroia is going to have a great year, and the naysayers will see he is the unofficial captain of this team.

Saltalamacchia will be better offensively than last year
Salty hit .222 last year with 25 home runs, 59 RBIs, walked 38 times, and stuck out 139 times. My guess, he’ll hit about .250, 28 home runs, 75 RBIs, walk rate will be up a little and strike out rate down.

Bard will spend the majority of the season in Triple-A
Bard, once a consistent reliever, has been pretty shaky lately. Last year, after starting the year as a starter, he was quickly sent to Triple-A and never fully recovered. At times this Spring, he’s seemed like his old self (partly because he is again a reliever and maybe because of Farrell’s presence), but he’s still having issues. Currently, his ERA is at 6.75; he gave up 3 runs in one inning during Wednesday’s game against the Marlins. Bard will eventually make it back to the big club, but he’ll spend most of the season in Triple-A working out the kinks and cobwebs.

Stephen Drew will be traded
The Red Sox signed Drew to a 1 year/$9.5 million contract this offseason. Drew will more than likely start the season on the disabled list while recovering from a concussion, which opens up the door for Iglesias to be the Opening Day shortstop. Iglesias’s glove is there, but he still needs a little more work on his bat. If his bat comes around even remotely (say .220-.230 average), the Sox keep Iglesias and move Drew.

Felix Doubront will not have a good season
Last season, Doubront’s first full season as a starting pitcher, Doubront had an 11-10 with a 4.86 ERA; his WHIP was 1.447. Not horrible (especially compared to the rest of the pitching staff that was pretty much in the same range), but definitely not something a pitcher would like to get used to. Doubront’s only 25, and he’s going to go through some growing pains before he really catches hold as a pitcher. He stated last year that his arm strength declined later in the season. My guess is Doubront will still win about 10 games, but not to the fanfare he did last year (remember, Doubront was considered a bright spot on the Sox’s roster).

And that’s what I have at the moment. It’s kind of hard to do predictions when I haven’t really viewed that many Spring Training games. This is thanks MLB.TV and NESN for not broadcasting too many, not because lack of trying; it’s kind of hard to see how a player’s at bat is going via GameDay. Maybe when the season gets going a little more, and I have a few games viewed I can give better predictions.

I probably won’t be posting again before Opening Day (Easter weekend is upon us). My plan is to do some live tweeting during the game on Monday, so follow me @AshleyAries on Twitter. It’ll be my first time live tweeting a game; so hopefully, it goes well!