Lester's the Ace, Right?

Opening Day for the Red sox is exactly two weeks from today. The Spring Training roster is shrinking as prospects are headed to their appropriate affiliates, and players are staying later in the games. The weather may not be screaming “Spring” (it’s snowing at the moment here in Iowa); but in two weeks, Spring Training will be over and the season will officially be underway.

Manager John Farrell hasn’t named the Opening Day starter, but every indication seems to point at Jon Lester. Lester has been dubbed the “Ace” for years now. While some have disputed that he deserves this title, he has remained one of the best pitchers the Red Sox have had over the years. His 2012 stats were anything but “Ace” quality: 9-14 record, 4.82 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and gave up 25 home runs. On a plus side, he did pitch 205.1 innings over the season. Buchholz, arguably the best starter last year, wasn’t much better: 11-8 record, 4.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, gave up 25 home runs, and pitched 189.1 innings.

It’s safe to say that Lester and Buchholz are the Red Sox’s number 1 and 2 starters, no matter which order they’ll end up pitching. They’ll be followed by Ryan Dempster, Felix Doubrant, and John Lackey. Dempster, as I’ve written before, will be an effective member of the pitching staff and an innings-eater for this staff. Doubrant showed last year that he is capable of being a starter, even if it’s been a little slow-going for him this Spring. Lackey is the Wild Card (after recovering from Tommy John surgery last year and having the worst season out of any Red Sox pitcher in history for 2011). Lackey has showed that his elbow is healed this Spring though.

Lester’s been fantastic this Spring, even pitching 6.0 perfect innings and striking out 6 in yesterday’s 5-1 win against the Rays. Lester’s line for the Spring: 3-0 record, 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 16 SO, .50 WHIP. Yes, this is limited. But, it is very encouraging.

Taking a look at the other four starters:

Buchholz: 2-0 record, 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 SO, 0.96 WHIP
Dempster: 1-1 record, 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 SO, 0.87 WHIP
Doubront: 1-1 record, 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 SO, 1.27 WHIP
Lackey: 2-0 record, 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1.65 WHIP

Yes, Lackey’s line is a little disheartening, but he’s also working back from Tommy John surgery and not pitching healthy for years. He’s still a little behind the other starters in terms of innings pitched and such, but from everything I’ve been reading about him, he’s looking much improved from 2011. I guess we (including myself) will have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

My guess is Farrell names Lester the Opening Day pitcher this coming weekend, with the other pitchers lining up as I’ve shown above. He pretty much has the rotation as that in Spring Training anyway, so it makes sense. Lester’s out to prove 2012 was a fluke, and I’m guessing he’s going to be contending for the Cy Young this year. Of course, I made that prediction last year, and Lester did horribly.